Before nominations for this year’s Tony Awards were announced at the end of April, this spring’s biggest news on Broadway had been the sheer proliferation of new shows. That month alone saw the arrival of 15 productions; the calendar was so packed that on several occasions two shows shared an opening night — a rare occurrence, even at that busy time of year.

The Tonys will be handed out on June 16, in a ceremony broadcast live on CBS from the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts, and as the big night approaches, industry insiders are watching box office figures. Nominations, and awards, can help boost ticket sales, and vice versa: When producers of “Lempicka,” a bio-musical focusing on artist Tamara de Lempicka, announced that it would closing early last month, it was noted that while the show had received three Tonys nods, none were in the top category of best musical.

On the other hand, a revival of “The Wiz” that was among eight productions from the 2023-24 season shut out of the nominations entirely has been among Broadway’s highest-grossing shows in recent weeks. For the week ending May 26, officially the first of the 2024-25 season, it raked in nearly $1.5 million, according to the Broadway League — more than all but seven other productions, including long-standing behemoths such as “The Lion King,” “Wicked,” and “Hamilton” — with a healthy audience capacity of 97 percent.

Shows with multiple nominations were also among the top earners: Starry revivals of “Cabaret” and “Merrily We Roll Along” respectively grossed about $1.7 million and $1.6 million, with capacities — a more telling figure, given the varying prices and sizes of theaters — at 100 percent in both cases. This season’s most nominated musical, the 13-times-tapped “Hell’s Kitchen,” inspired by the life of and featuring music by Alicia Keys, played to 101 percent capacity (accounting for standing-room attendance), grossing about $1.6 million, while “The Outsiders,” a new musical that collected a dozen nominations, reached 102 percent, grossing about $1 million.

Of course, these productions all enjoy the additional benefit of having big names or widely recognized properties attached. “Outsiders” is based on an enduringly popular novel and movie, and lists Angelina Jolie among its producers. The six-times-nominated musical “Suffs,” which counts as producers Hillary Rodham Clinton and a Nobel Peace Prize winner, Malala Yousafzai, and has enlisted both in its promotional campaign, played to a capacity of 95 percent in this week, grossing $758,495.

A new production of “An Enemy of the People” starring a “Succession” alumnus, Jeremy Strong, who earned one of its five nominations, boasted the week’s most packed house at 103 percent and a gross of just more than $1 million. New plays “Mary Jane” and “Mother Play” — each up for four awards, including leading actress for respective stars Rachel McAdams and Jessica Lange — saw venues 95 and 97 percent full, grossing $491,146 and $451,737. In contrast, the new play “Patriot,” which scored only one nomination, and the new musical “The Heart of Rock and Roll,” which received none, played to capacities of less than 70 percent, despite having gathered some enthusiastic reviews.

All told, the first week of the new season actually saw box office drop a bit, according to the show business tracker Deadline, with grosses down roughly 3 percent and attendance down about 2 percent from the previous week. The various affected shows included “Illinoise,” a lavishly acclaimed dance/musical theater hybrid that is up for four Tonys, including best musical, but features a cast of relative unknowns — several of them Broadway newcomers; its attendance dipped  to 8,180 from 8,457 and gross fell to $720,409 from $816,479.

“Stereophonic,” another critically adored production with mostly lesser-known performers, saw its attendance hold steady — rising, technically, to 6,194 from 6,191 —and grossed $784,151, an increase of more than $,3000 from the previous week. Granted, it set a record this year as the most nominated play in Tonys history, matching the 13 nods received by “Hell’s Kitchen.” 

The takeaway, it would seem, is that while no single factor — not award nominations, not star power, and certainly not critical praise — can guarantee box office success, every bit can help. Musicals remain the biggest earners, to some extent because of higher ticket prices, an average of $128.47 to $108.09 last season, according to the League, though that figure doesn’t come close to what some pay for premium tickets and to third-party outlets, particularly for good seats to blockbusters. Musicals are also generally more expensive to produce.

That higher costs don’t seem to have been a deterrent lately: The season being celebrated at this year’s Tony Awards brought 21 new musical productions, as compared to 16 new stagings of plays — a near reversal of the previous season, which welcomed 24 productions of plays (including a return engagement) and 15 of musicals. 

The new season is promising plenty of both, including recently announced revivals of “Once Upon A Mattress” and “Gypsy,” respectively due this summer and fall and starring multiple award-winning Broadway favorites Sutton Foster and Audra McDonald. That means next year’s Tonys race is, essentially, already upon us.