Hunter Biden is finding himself in increasing legal jeopardy as his lawyers try to salvage his foundering plea deal, GOP lawmakers escalate their probes, and the Department of Justice pursues its own ongoing investigation. So, should Mr. Biden’s plea deal fall through or his past business practices bring new charges, how much time could the first son face behind bars were he charged and convicted?

The most straightforward issue for Mr. Biden is that of his forthcoming guilty plea, where he hopes to admit to two misdemeanor charges of “willful” tax evasion in exchange for probation. 

According to whistleblowers from the Internal Revenue Service, Mr. Biden owes the Department of the Treasury hundreds of thousands of dollars in unpaid taxes, which typically constitutes a felony violation, not a misdemeanor. A felony conviction of willful tax evasion in excess of $100,000 — as has been alleged by the whistleblowers in the first son’s case — would result in a maximum prison sentence of five years and a fine of no less than $100,000 on top of the taxes that are owed.  

Those charges are likely to be resolved, though, as the first son’s plea deal was imperiled not by the tax misdemeanors but by a pretrial diversion program that is typically imposed on drug abusers and alcoholics for the purposes of helping them to maintain their sobriety. 

The presiding judge who was set to approve the deal, Maryellen Noreika, accused Mr. Biden’s lawyers and prosecutors of wanting her to act as a “rubber stamp” for an agreement she viewed to be unconstitutional. The attorneys are now trying to figure out how to resolve the issue of the pretrial diversion guidelines as well as whether Mr. Biden has immunity from any criminal charges going forward. 

The real danger for Mr. Biden comes from the ongoing investigation by the United States attorney for Delaware’s office, which could be a probe into whether the first son violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which governs the legal means by which one can lobby or consult for foreign governments, business entities, or individuals.

“There are references to foreign companies, for example, in the facts section,” Judge Noreika said during the plea hearing, referring to the section of the agreement that disclosed some of the foreign lobbying Mr. Biden allegedly did on behalf of business interests. “Could the government bring a charge under the Foreign Agents Registration Act?” she asked. 

“Yes,” the prosecution replied quickly. 

FARA has ensnared a number of prominent officials in recent years. A deputy finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, Elliot Broidy, pleaded guilty to violating FARA in 2020 after he was charged with lobbying on behalf of the Malaysian and Communist Chinese governments. 

President Trump’s 2016 campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, was convicted of violating FARA in 2017 for work he had done on behalf of Ukrainian business interests and oligarchs. After spending nearly two years in a federal penitentiary and months in home confinement due to the Covid pandemic, Mr. Manafort was pardoned by Mr. Trump in December 2020. 

Just in recent days, new disclosures about Mr. Biden’s work for a Ukrainian energy company, Burisma, have come under scrutiny by congressional investigators. Mr. Biden’s former business partner, Devon Archer, on Monday sat before the House Oversight Committee for an interview, during which he detailed the value of the Biden family “brand” and how foreign business interests allegedly used the first son to gain some measure of sway in that nation’s capital during the Obama administration. 

Archer told an independent journalist, Tucker Carlson, that Mr. Biden’s invocation of his father was “an abuse of soft power” that was done for the purpose of getting rich. “I don’t know if it was an orchestrated call-in or not,” Archer said of the 20 or so instances where the president called into his son’s business meetings. “It certainly was powerful, though, because, you know, if you’re sitting with a foreign business person and you hear the vice president’s voice, that’s prize enough. That’s pretty impactful stuff.”

A conviction on even a single charge of violating FARA carries a prison term of up to five years in prison as well as a $10,000 fine.