As the Moldovan government collapses, the country’s next prime minister, Dorin Recean, is vowing to maintain its pro-Western stance even as President Putin is intent on destabilizing the tiny country, extending the war at the heart of Europe, and undermining opponents in the former Soviet bloc. 

The White House announced Friday that President Biden will travel to Poland on February 20 to mark the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The trip could be marred by further Russian aggression, as the Kremlin seems to have Moldova — and perhaps other former Soviet states — in its crosshairs. Observers are wondering whether the West will rise to the challenge.

“Russia views Moldova as the weakest link,” a former adviser to a Moldovan government, Jason Smart, told The New York Sun in a phone call from Poland. The economy of the tiny country of 2.5 million people, divided between supporters of Russia and those clamoring to join the European Union and NATO, has worsened since the Ukraine invasion.   

As a result, the Moldovan prime minister for the last 18 months, Natalia Gavrilita, announced her resignation Friday. Political turmoil, egged-on by Russian operatives, forced her out, and Ms. Gavrilita said she lost public support.  Her leadership was constantly undermined by pro-Russian political forces opposing her pro-Western policies.

The resignation was punctuated by a Russian missile, aimed at Ukraine, that flew over Moldova and neighboring Romania, a NATO member. The menacing attack came one day after Ukraine’s president said his intelligence service intercepted a plan to invade Moldova.

As reported by the Sun’s Anthony Grant, the documents unearthed by Kyiv showed “who, when, and how” Russia would “break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova.” 

The Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, who favors joining the European Union and NATO, thanked Ms. Gavrilita for her service and promised consultations on putting in place the new premier in short order. “The new prime minister will be Dorin Recean,” a Ukrainian news site, Obosrevatel, reported. His appointment is expected to be announced Monday.  

Ms. Gavrilita “has become a lightning rod” for the pro-Russia camp in the country, so her resignation “will make things harder for the Russians,” Mr. Smart, who writes for the Kyiv Post newspaper, said. “Recean is being taken very seriously on national security. Security is his background,” he added. The appointment is expected to help the country’s pro-Western political forces.  

Moldovans were spooked by the Russian missile’s flight over the country, as were Europeans who saw reports, later denied by Bucharest, that the missile also flew over Romanian airspace. While the incident is unlikely to trigger NATO reaction, it was yet another Kremlin gambit: an attempt at destabilizing places President Putin considers soft targets. 

“When Putin started this whole thing, the Ukraine invasion, he expected the West to do nothing,” a Ukraine watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Ivana Strander, told the Sun. Inspired by President Zelensky’s leadership, however, America and European countries armed Ukraine and supplied other forms of assistance. 

To remain pro-Western, Moldova would now need economic assistance too, Ms. Strander said. The country’s energy sector was heavily dependent on Russian oil, which has dried up since the beginning of the war. Unemployment is rising, and a stream of Ukrainian refugees is overwhelming the country. 

The Kremlin used the economic downturn to bolster the pro-Russia opposition to the government. Also, similar to its tactics in places like Georgia, Ukraine, and elsewhere in the former Soviet bloc, Russia had earlier declared Transnistria — a thin sliver of Moldova’s territory that borders Ukraine — an independent state. 

The Russians amassed arms and ammunition within the carved-out Moldovan territory. Transnistria has long been seen as a possible launching pad for an attack on Ukraine from the west. Russian operatives also use it as a base from which to instigate political provocations against Moldova’s elected government.

If Mr. Zelensky’s warnings are correct, Russia could take over a country it has long seen as a low-hanging fruit. If so, in addition to a widely anticipated winter attack from Donbas in the east of Ukraine, Russian forces could threaten the Ukrainian army from the west.

Unlike Ukraine, Moldova’s military is nearly non-existent, and is likely to be overwhelmed by the Russian-backed army at Transnistria. Politically, however, Moldovans have likely been “sufficiently spooked by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, so they’re more pro-Western than they were before the war,” an Israeli journalist who has long covered Russia, Yair Navot, said. 

When Mr. Biden lands at Warsaw, and perhaps even makes a quick incursion into Kyiv, he would do well to address the possibility of Mr. Putin widening the war — unless by then Russia has already swallowed Moldova whole. Meanwhile, the Europeans would do well to shore up Moldova’s economy to bolster those who would rather not live under Mr. Putin’s boot for the foreseeable future.