Ukrainians dread a return to office of President Trump, fearing he would cut American military aid or even side with President Putin in its war with Russia. To be on the safe side, Kyiv is promoting domestic production of Ukrainian arms. 

With elections ramping up in America and several European countries that support Kyiv, Ukrainians are helping local manufacturers to produce military equipment, anticipating the need to reduce its dependence on foreigners.

That development may well mesh with Mr. Trump’s foreign policy. As president, he aggressively urged European countries to increase defense spending. Now, he often voices discomfort with the amount of resources America has spent in Ukraine.

If Mr. Trump returns to power and implements his declared plans, support for Ukraine could diminish, the head of the Department of Public Governance at the Kyiv School of Economics, Ivan Gomza, tells the Sun. As a result, he says, Ukraine is trying to build a safety net by seeking more assistance from other countries and building a self-sustainable military capacity. 

Ukraine produced twice as many artillery shells in July 2023 than it did in the entirety of 2022, Mr. Gomza says. A couple of months after the invasion, Ukrainian Armor also resumed the production of 60mm caliber mortars and supplied more than 100,000 units to the armed forces. 

The Ukrainian government confirmed it is working to create local demining machines. “Together with the support of international partners, Ukraine has all the capabilities for producing equipment for humanitarian demining. Today we met with Ukrainian local firms ready to manufacture dozens of heavy pyrotechnic machines annually,” the vice prime minister of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko, tweeted. 

A Ukrainian blogger and volunteer, Ihor Lachenkov, announced last month that he wanted to collect about $540,000 to produce and buy five Beaver drones for the military. In May this year, he posted pictures with one such drone. Since then, Ukraine has been using Beaver-like drones to target Russia.

Regardless, Ukraine is currently unlikely to maintain its defense needs by itself, an associate professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, Javed Ali, tells the Sun. Kyiv will continue to require the assistance of other countries, he says. 

Mr. Ali held positions in the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, where he had a senior role at the National Security Council during the Trump administration. 

President Biden asked Congress for an additional $24 billion to send to Ukraine this month, which would add to a total of $135 billion in assistance since the war started. In comparison, European countries have pledged about $3.9 billion for the Ukrainian war. Germany and the United Kingdom have given more than $10 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for World Economy. 

“We’re giving away so much equipment, we don’t have ammunition for ourselves right now,” Mr. Trump said in May during a CNN town hall. He also reiterated his plea to European countries to increase their assistance to Ukraine. “I’ll say this: I want Europe to put up more money,” Mr. Trump said.

Mr. Trump and his rhetoric worry people in Ukraine, an associate professor at Odesa Mechnikov National University, Volodymyr Dubovyk, tells the Sun. 

People were uneasy in 2016 when Mr. Trump contemplated recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, Mr. Dubovyk says. The Kremlin illegally annexed the territory in 2014. Mr. Trump said he thought the people of Crimea preferred to be with Russia than where they were before. He also withheld about $400 million in aid to Ukraine in 2019.

“It worries us even more now during this massive Russian invasion while the U.S. aid plays such a vital role,” Mr. Dubovyk adds.

During his time in office, Mr. Trump asked NATO leaders to increase the bloc’s defense spending to 4 percent of their economic output. The current goal of the group is 2 percent. “Trump wants to see our allies share more of the burden and at a very minimum meet their already stated obligations,” spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told reporters at the time.

President Zelensky, Mr. Ali says, will have to anticipate any potential scenarios before the end of 2024, which could mean getting military and Western support at a faster rate. If it looks like Mr. Trump is going to win, Mr. Ali says, Mr. Zelensky “is going to do as much as he can to achieve as much of Ukraine’s military objectives as he can before the election.”