Ukraine delivered a birthday present to President Putin this morning — blowing up the largest oil refinery and depot in Crimea. Mr. Putin’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula is the signature achievement of his near 25-year-long rule, a message to his people and to the world that Russia is back as a superpower. 

On October 8, 2022, one day after the Russian ruler’s 70th birthday, Ukraine’s Security Service set off a truck bomb on the $4 billion road and rail bridge that Mr. Putin commissioned to unite continental Russia with occupied Crimea. Today, drivers on the central arch of the damaged bridge could see two towering columns of black and gray smoke rising from the burning oil tank farm in Feodosia, 50 miles to the west.

The war is entering “a very important phase,” President Zelensky told the nation last night in his nightly televised address. Ukraine needs to “put pressure on Russia in the way that’s necessary for Russia to realize that the war will gain them nothing.” He added: “We will continue to apply even greater pressure on Russia — because only through strength can we bring peace closer.”

Two hours later, Ukrainian long range kamikaze drones started dive bombing three Russian air bases along the flight path that drones or cruise missiles would take to hit the coveted tank farm. The goal was to knock down Russian air defenses. Around 4:30 am local time Monday, Ukrainian missiles or drones hit the complex, the main source of oil products for Russia’s Army in the region. 

Russia’s Defense Ministry said today that it shot down 12 Ukrainian drones over Crimea last night. It did not talk about the ones that got away. Crimea government advisor Oleg Kryuchkov said on Telegram: “There’s a fire at the Feodosia oil depot. Emergency services are on the scene. No casualties or injuries have been reported.” 

A state of emergency was declared, adjacent roads were closed and 300 residents were evacuated. All day long fire and smoke were visible to the 70,000 inhabitants of Feodosia,  a picturesque resort city founded by ancient Greeks 2,500 years ago.  

In fires that burned at the Marine Oil Terminal, two reservoirs were destroyed and four were damaged. The 33-tank depot and refinery can store nearly 2 million barrels, reports independent Russian news agency Astra. Last March, drones attacked the refinery and broke the main fuel line. On the peninsula, retail gasoline prices jumped by 20 percent and thousands of motorists waited in line for fuel.

 After seizing Crimea from Ukraine a decade ago, Russia converted the peninsula, long a vacation destination, into a key staging area for its war in southern Ukraine.

Since Crimea is considered Ukrainian under international law, Ukraine is free to hit military sites with long range cruise missiles supplied by America, Britain and France. This weekend, Mr. Zelensky is to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany with defense leaders from the more than 50 nations that supply military aid to Ukraine. The Ukrainian president is expected to renew his appeal for permission to use Western-made long range missiles to hit Russian military targets within a 200-mile range of Ukraine’s border.

Fear of these missiles, and of Ukrainian sea drones, forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in recent weeks to evacuate Feodosia and other Crimean naval bases, including Sevastopol. Last December, a Ukrainian missile strike on Feodosia destroyed the Novocherkassk landing ship. Measuring 369-feet long, the ship was capable of carrying 340 marines and 10 battle tanks.

Rewriting naval strategy, Ukraine, a nation without a navy, sank one third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. In recent weeks, Russian war ships have left the Sea of Azov, a body of water connected to the Black Sea by the Kerch Strait. Others have sought safe harbors on Russia’s Black Sea coast.

Ukraine expert Anne Applebaum wrote last week in The Atlantic: “This is possibly the most successful example of asymmetric warfare in history … This can’t be said often enough: Ukraine, a country without much of a navy, defeated Russia’s Black Sea fleet.”

Ukraine defense expert Serhii Kuzan wrote last week in an essay for The Atlantic Council. “It is still far too early to speak about the impending end of the Russian occupation. Nevertheless, with the Black Sea Fleet in retreat, logistical connections disrupted, and air defenses depleted, the Kremlin’s grip on Crimea already appears to be significantly weaker than it was when the full-scale invasion began two and half years ago.”

Unable to patrol the Black Sea by ship, Russia has resorted to firing missiles at civilian grain ships using Odesa region ports. Today, a missile hit a vessel at Odesa, killing one Ukrainian and injuring five foreigners, regional governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram. Yesterday, a Russian missile damaged a ship loaded with corn in the port of Pivdennyi. Last month,a Russian missile hit an Egypt-bound grain ship in neutral waters just outside Ukraine. The missile failed to explode.

Fear of Ukrainian drones  has prompted President Putin to radically cut back on his flights to Sochi, the Black Sea resort favored by Kremlin leaders since Stalin’s days.

 Independent news site Agentstvo reported today the number of his annual trips to Sochi had dwindled from between 24 and 36 during the pre-war years, to 13 in the first year of his full-scale invasion in 2022. Last year, he made eight. This year, he has only one trip, on March 6, to meet Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

With much of Russia’s air defenses on Crimea in ruins, Russia’s military moved many of its surviving anti-air units east, in the direction of Sochi. The 12-mile long Kerch Bridge, which is too weak to handle heavy munitions trains, is protected by underwater barriers against sea drones and a Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system placed  on the bridge.

The coincidence between today’s attack on Feodosia and the birthday of Russia’s leader was clear to many observers today. 

“An oil depot is on fire in Russian-occupied Feodosia Crimea,” Kyiv Post reporter Jason Jay Smart tweeted early this morning. “Today is Putin’s birthday — let’s hope there are very big fireworks, across the occupied territories, to celebrate.”