Turkey has already said it will not hesitate to intervene in Syria if the country starts to break up — but is that kind of language a precursor to designs on the territory of, in Greece, a fellow member of the North Atlantic Treaty? Judging by the latest diplomatic kerfuffle between Ankara and Athens, which risks escalating into a full-blown feud or worse, this could already be happening. 

A rightist ally of President Erdogan, Devlet Bahceli of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party, this week openly questioned Greece’s sovereignty over the islands of the southeastern Aegean. In so doing Mr. Bahceli challenges the provisions of international laws and agreements such as the 1923 Lausanne Treaty.

In a  meeting of his party’s parliamentary group, Mr. Bahceli said that “We cannot think of the Dodecanese without Turkey. The Dodecanese have been usurped and taken with foot games. Following an aggressive policy on the opposite shore of the Aegean does not benefit any country. Turkey will never abandon the Blue Homeland.”

The Dodecanese islands, of which there are a dozen, include the fabled Greek islands of Rhodes and Symi, and all are geographically closer to Turkey than to the Greek mainland.  The phrase “Blue Homeland,” or Mavi vatan in Turkish, is a reference to Ankara’s hotly contested maritime claims in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These include claims around the island republic of Cyprus and various claims in the Aegean. 

The remarks drew a swift rebuke from Athens. On Tuesday, The Greek ministry of foreign affairs issued a statement that read in part, “The status of the Dodecanese is defined by the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty. Greece, as a sovereign state, fully retains its natural and legal right to self-defense, as enshrined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.”

The statement added that “This right becomes even more vital when Greece is threatened with war (casus belli) for exercising sovereignty in accordance with international law. Maintaining peace demands prudence and responsibility, not provocative rhetoric. Sovereignty is non-negotiable and revisionist views are universally rejected.”

The “aggressive policy” to which Mr. Bahceli referred is a distortion of Greece’s normal defense planning, frequently in cooperation with America, which President Erdogan and his nationalist allies tend to misconstrue as militarization of various islands that have long been a  part of Greece. 

That fact does not seem to be deterring key allies of President Erdogan from stirring the pot with bellicose rhetoric. Mr. Bahceli also said that “a plan for armament constitutes a challenge for Turkey and drags the Aegean into a vortex of tensions” and warned Athens to “watch its steps.”

What this all adds up to is that Turkey’s power plays in the Mediterranean are picking up steam. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, Iranian influence deflated in Syria, and the EU characteristically impotent, Ankara could be pressing its bets as they pertain to its longstanding claims in the region.

In the near term, it is mostly rhetoric. In the intermediate term, the chances for a “hot” incident between Greek and Turkish forces in the Aegean Sea will grow — that is something that has happened before, and it wouldn’t take much to spark another incident in this geographically complex area.

Looking beyond January, as Turkey’s robust role in Syria’s new government goes unchecked and Turkey doubles down on its claims to northern Cyprus, tensions are likely to escalate. Before long the onus could well be on Washington to jump in and keep Greece and Turkey, ostensible allies, from coming to blows.

As for Cyprus, where a good chunk of territory is still illegally occupied by Turkey, its position as an aircraft carrier of sorts in the eastern Mediterranean got a shot in the arm this week.

That is because, on Wednesday, President Biden issued a memorandum that makes the island nation eligible to receive American defense articles, military sales, and training.

There will now also be greater interoperability to counter “malign influence  and combat terrorism and transnational organized crime,” according to the American embassy at Nicosia. There is still a heavy Turkish military presence, including more than 30,000 Turkish troops, in the northern third of the island.