With a vocal school choice supporter heading to the White House, leaders within the movement say they’re feeling “optimistic” about passing a first-of-its-kind federal school choice bill.

The Educational Choice for Children Act, which recently passed in the House Ways and Means Committee, would set up a national tax-credit scholarship initiative by allowing those who donate to K-12 scholarships to receive a credit on their federal income taxes. Trump has already indicated in a Fox News interview that he would sign it as well as “anything to do with school choice.”

“This is the first nationwide school choice bill that has ever passed out of a congressional committee,” a leading national school choice advocate, Corey DeAngelis, tells The New York Sun of the bill. 

The bill faces staunch opposition from the nation’s largest labor union, the National Education Association, which says it’s a “scheme” that would “erode public education” and rob public schools of “scarce funding and resources.” According to the most recent data from the Department of Education, public schools received an average of $17,000 per student in the 2020-21 school year.

Given that nearly 100 percent of the NEA’s campaign contributions go to Democrats, it’s unlikely that Democrats would vote for a federal school choice measure, Mr. DeAngelis says, meaning Republican control of the House seems essential for the legislation to pass. 

“The Republicans are poised to control the House, I think the betting markets have it at an over 90 percent chance that Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives,” he says. Republicans have already won the Senate. 

Along with Trump’s support, more than 30 senators have co-signed the bill and “70 percent of House Republicans” have already signed onto a version of the bill, Mr. DeAngelis says “So we’re optimistic there.”

Because the program would be a federal tax credit, it would not be regulated by the Department of Education or interfere with Trump’s promises to shut down the department.

The legislation would not only add fuel to red states passing school choice reforms, Mr. DeAngelis says, but also would expand “educational opportunities to families that happen to live in blue states that are currently controlled by the teachers unions, so families in California could now access school choice, if the Educational Choice for Children Act gets across the finish line.” However, because a majority of K-12 funding is at the state and local levels, the federal legislation doesn’t “negate the need to pass school choice at the state level,” he adds. 

This election, measures to expand school choice failed at the ballot box in three states — in Kentucky, Colorado, and Nebraska. Opponents of school choice have said they’ve found “strength” in those ballot results — yet polling of national voters indicates broad support for school choice. More than two-thirds of likely voters — 69 percent — said they support a federal tax credit program to allow families to send students to a school of their choice, including private schools, recent polling from the Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll indicates. 

The three failed state ballot measures are likely due to “union talking points” and “special interest groups” that far outspent school choice messaging in the state, a director of state advocacy at the American Federation for Children, Marc LeBlond, tells the Sun. 

“There’s a messaging battle that’s been going on for a very long time, and it’s going to take some time to turn that ship around. Union groups, and all of the kind of web of organizations that stem from them and money that stems from them has been geared for years, sowing doubt about school choice,” he says. “I think the trend is working in our favor, we’ve got over a million kids participating in school choice programs, and despite the unfortunate losses.”

On a nationwide level, this election added fuel to “the visibility and messaging around school choice and the increase of school choice as a voting issue,” he says. 

Although it’s early to make predictions about the Educational Choice for Children Act, he says that there is “certainly an appetite” for the federal legislation, as it has the most co-sponsors it’s ever had. 

“If you look at places like Illinois and other states where families really have no options, where the legislatures are controlled by the unions and families have been left hanging out to dry by their officials, this is really — for parents and kids — it’s their only shot to get some choice in education,” he says.