A new survey suggests that President Trump might enjoy an advantage in some of the swing states that were key to President Biden’s 2020 victory if he wins the Republican nomination for president.

A survey from Echelon Insights of 1,020 voters found that in a head-to-head matchup between Messrs. Trump and Biden, Mr. Biden would be the slight favorite, carrying 45 percent of the vote to Mr. Trump’s 44 percent, a result within the poll’s 3.9 percent margin of error.

Among the 395 voters surveyed in battleground states, though, the poll found that Mr. Trump enjoys an advantage. In these battleground states, 48 percent of respondents reported supporting Mr. Trump compared to 41 percent who said they would back Mr. Biden. In 2024, states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, and Arizona will be key for either party to secure the electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

The poll also found that Mr. Biden would lose more support from a potential third-party candidate than Mr. Trump. When including philosopher Cornel West in the race, the poll found that Mr. West would carry 4 percent support, Mr. Biden would carry 42 percent, and Mr. Trump would carry 43 percent. Another 11 percent is still undecided.

As the Sun has reported, any potential third-party or independent candidate would likely draw more voters from Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump and could be a major liability for Mr. Biden’s campaign. 

Mr. West’s candidacy could have a similar impact in the 2024 election to activist Ralph Nader’s Green Party run in 2000. That year, Mr. Nader received more than 97,000 votes in the state of Florida, more than enough to swing the election in either direction.

In 2020, though, early third-party challenges petered out by Election Day. The Green Party nominee, Howie Hawkins, polled at about 1 percent support through the campaign, only to receive less than 0.26 percent support nationally in the final tally.

The Libertarian Party carried the most of any third-party or independent bid in 2020: Its nominee, Jo Jorgensen, carried 1.18 percent of the popular vote on Election Day.

The recent Echelon Insights poll didn’t collect data on any conservative third-party challengers, even though the Libertarian Party is currently in the early stages of its own primary.

In terms of the upcoming primary elections in the Republican and Democratic parties, Messrs. Trump and Biden are clear favorites in their respective competitions.

The survey found that Mr. Trump would carry 49 percent support in a hypothetical Republican primary held today. Governor DeSantis would come in second place with 16 percent support. Activist Vivek Ramaswamy would come in third place with 10 percent support.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Biden enjoys 65 percent support in a hypothetical Democratic primary, with attorney Robert Kennedy Jr. carrying 14 percent and activist Marianne Williamson at 4 percent.