The White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives — Republicans are in the lead to win all three in November, according to forecasts updated on Tuesday by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

President Trump has a 57.8 percent chance of winning the election in November, while President Biden has a 42.3 percent chance, the forecast model suggests. As of Tuesday, Mr. Trump is poised to win 282 electoral college votes, while Mr. Biden is poised to win 256. The winning presidential candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available electoral votes. 

Seventy-seven electoral college votes — across Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin — are currently a toss-up. Yet the 45th president maintains a slight lead in most of the key swing states in the presidential race. In Georgia, which Mr. Biden won in 2020, Mr. Trump has a 63 percent chance of winning, the pollsters predict, while the president has a 37 percent chance.

The data is just a prediction, as the election is more than five months away. “This is like taking a test that doesn’t count, like getting a grade in school that doesn’t count,” the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, Scott Tranter, told The Hill. “No one’s voting today, no one’s picking a president or picking a senator. If they did pick them today, this is probably how I’d hand it out.”

A Rasmussen poll released Tuesday shows that more Democrats than Republicans say they want President Biden off the Democratic presidential ticket. A Democratic operative close to the White House has told Politico that high-ranking Democrats are in a “freakout” over his reelection prospects.