As President Erdogan settles on a new presidential term Turkey is bound to become a more oppressive and less free place than even during his first two decades in power. At the same time, President Biden, who has vowed to center his foreign policy on human rights, is fast moving to improve relations with the North Atlantic Treaty’s  most problematic member. This is a circumstance in which the best course for the administration is to tread lightly.

Mr. Erdogan poses a major dilemma for Washington policymakers. His erratic, fast-changing decisions have confounded friends and foes. In the early days of his premiership he vowed “zero problems with the neighbors.” As Ankara grew more autocratic under him, Turkey’s foreign policy became more aggressive. Soon enough the country developed problems with each of its neighbors, as well as with governments farther away.  

America was shocked when, in 2017, Mr. Erdogan decided to purchase a Russian missile defense system, S-400. NATO has long integrated superior American-made missile systems, and Turkey strayed. It was but a first demarche in a number of moves that distanced Ankara from Washington and the alliance. Turkey attacked America’s Kurdish allies in Syria and funded Islamist foes as anti-Americanism grew ever more popular in Ottoman streets.

After President Putin invaded Ukraine, Mr. Erdogan declined to enforce American and European sanctions. Turkey became a haven for Moscow’s oligarchs. While Ankara maintained close ties with the Kremlin, it also sold to Ukraine drones that have become one of Kyiv’s most effective weapons against the invader. Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey has become too important an ally to shed, and too problematic to coddle.  

Plus, too, Mr. Erdogan has wily survival instincts, which explains his zigzagging on a host of issues. Yet his Islamist roots are a constant. Over his 20 years in power, Turkey has turned its back on the secularism of its founding father, Kemal Ataturk. A former ally, Israel, became a piñata. Animosity to the Jewish state is by now so deep that Mr. Erdogan’s leading election foe, Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, vowed to be even more anti-Israel than the president.

Yet, in the most astonishing demarche in recent years, Mr. Erdogan now seems to crave close Israel ties — going so far as to welcome President Herzog to the presidential palace at Ankara. The relation will likely get even warmer, even as Mr. Erdogan hosts some of Israel’s worst foes, such as Hamas bigwig Saleh Arouri. Mr.Erdogan needs hard currency, and he believes the way to Washington’s heart is through the Jewish state. God bless him.  

Mr. Erdogan’s victory Sunday was not brought about by Western-grade democratic process. He controls the press, the courts, the business community, and all levers of power. He has dispersed cash to voters in hard-hit areas, where he won decisively despite his poor handling of the winter’s earthquake devastation. Following Sunday’s victory, and as 2024 local elections near, Mr. Erdogan is bound to maintain oppression of all political competition. 

Two issues dominated a phone call that, according to the White House, Mr. Biden made to Mr. Erdogan following the Turk’s dicey victory. One is that Turkey wants to complete a $20 billion purchase of American-made F-16s. Two is that Washington wants Mr. Erdogan to end his objection to Sweden’s accession to NATO membership. As our Benny Avni reports, the exchange is likely to happen, though relations are more complex than one deal.

Turkey is in need of hard currency, which only America can supply. We are no fans of Mr. Biden’s uneven approach to a human rights-based foreign policy, which at times neglects to take into account America’s interests, and fails to distinguish friend from foe. Yet, as Mr. Erdogan moves the country ever closer to a dictatorship, Turkey must be treated with extreme caution. Geography and military size makes it a desirable ally but an erratic one.