The Time Has Come for President Biden To Remove the Handcuffs on Ukraine’s Military
The aid we are sending will fail if the strategy fails to change, because Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition.
Additional American aid for Ukraine was essential and had my strongest support. Defeating Vladimir Putin is vital for the security of America and our allies. A Russian victory would threaten Eastern Europe, embolden Iran, and teach Communist China that it can attack Taiwan with no effective Western response.
However, the aid we are sending will fail if the strategy doesn’t change. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition. There are a lot more Russians than Ukrainians. The Army has a long history of grinding its way to victory after slow, stumbling starts. Remember the disastrous opening of the Soviet attack on Finland in 1939.
It was followed by a powerful rebuilding of Soviet forces. Similarly, the first stages of the Nazi attack in 1941 stunned the Soviet Army, but within six months it had begun to recover and push back the Germans.
Clearly, the Russians greatly underestimated Ukrainian resilience, toughness, and adaptability. However, the Russians have simply been recruiting more people, acquiring more weapons, and gradually improving their effectiveness as a fighting force.
American expectations have also been wrong. Recall that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Milley, predicted the Russians would be in Kyiv in three-to-four days. President Biden’s hope —for a purely defensive Ukrainian position that doesn’t attack targets inside Russia and carefully avoids angering Mr. Putin — proved to be in vain. Mr. Putin has punished Ukraine with levels of violence and war crimes that are almost unimaginable.
The time has come to match Russian aggressiveness with Ukrainian aggressiveness. A methodical campaign of attacking Russian infrastructure and logistics systems would carry the war to the Russian people. Mr. Putin would suddenly discover that he was at much more risk than President Zelenskyy.
The case for going after Russian assets inside Russia is overwhelming. Ukraine must win the psychological-political side of the campaign to ultimately win the military side. Trying to stay on defense while having your civilians and your infrastructure repeatedly attacked is a clear strategy for being exhausted, crushed by Russian aggressiveness, and losing the war.
Herman Pirchner of the American Foreign Policy Council recently captured this reality, noting that “expelling Russia from Ukraine requires strikes against Russian infrastructure. This means the destruction of oil terminals to reduce Moscow’s cash flow as well as bridges, planes, and factories central to Russia’s war effort.”
Similarly, Kurt Volker with the Center for European Policy Analysis wrote that “we must no longer give Ukraine just enough to survive, but not enough to win. A Ukrainian victory is essential to reestablish peace in Europe, to deter Chinese aggression in Asia, and to reinforce Iranian worries about attacking Israel ever again.”
Mr. Volker argued that the Biden administration’s strategy and actions need to meet Mr. Biden’s December 12, 2023, pledge that “We want to see Ukraine win the war.” As Mr. Volker put it, this means that the directives from the top of the system need to be consistently repeated and beaten into the lower parts of the system. Too many lower-ranking bureaucrats have watered down Mr. Biden’s words out of fear.
“There must be no equivocation with the President’s words. We must have strategic clarity. Lower-ranking American officials must stop avoiding the words ‘win,’ ‘victory,’ and ‘Russian defeat.’ … We need to begin deterring Russia against further aggression, rather than assuring it that we seek to avoid ‘escalation.’ Rather than worrying about what Putin might do, Putin should worry about what we might do,” Mr. Volker wrote.
To achieve this, Mr. Volker suggested that Mr. Biden remove handcuffs on Ukrainian aid; send Ukraine our longest-range Army Tactical Missile System ballistic missiles so Ukraine can attack real, legitimate military targets in Russia; and generally get out of Ukraine’s way so it can win.
Mr. Volker also suggested sending Ukraine a fully line of decommissioned aircraft so it can build significant airpower. There are hundreds of decommissioned military planes currently sitting in the Arizona desert, which we do not use.
Remember these principles: Lots of money with a bad strategy will lose the war; and any strategy with no money will lose the war. Victory requires the right resources with the right strategy — and strategy is the more important factor.
Think of George Washington defeating the greatest empire of his time. Think of the Duke of Wellington in the Peninsula and Waterloo. Think of Admiral Chester Nimitz outthinking the Japanese at Midway in what was called “the Miraculous Victory.” Think of the outnumbered Israelis in 1948, 1956, and 1974.
Ideas matter — and strategic ideas matter in winning wars.