Like “The Wizard of Oz” in reverse, a Syrian lion, once thought courageous and invincible, turns out to be less so. The house of Assad — Arabic for lion — is fast crumbling. Damascus is about to fall after Jihadist rebels captured ruling Baathist positions in Syria’s other cities. President Assad has fled the country, and his troops are defecting. Russians are retreating. Tehran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stops calling the anti-Assadists “terrorists.”

It is hard to overestimate the tectonic shifts should the Syrian regime become the latest fallen domino. President Putin is retreating from a Mideast presence he once considered vital, including a strategic Russian air base and naval port. The mullahs are at the nadir of their once-formidable Mideast dominance. Their “ring of fire” strategy of surrounding Israel with proxy armies is collapsing. A global anti-America axis is weakening.

What would America do? Listen to President-elect Trump, who weighed in while visiting Nôtre Dame. The Russians, he writes on X, are “being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them.” America, he adds in his now familiar all caps, “should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Don’t get involved.” Sage advice. Some 1,000 American troops in northeastern Syria can protect Kurdish allies, but mostly watch.  

Israel is also mainly in a wait-and-see mode. The rebels are far from cohesive, and some are downright nasty. A group captured the Syrian side of the Golan Heights today. Israeli troops leaped to aid there United Nations peacekeepers, who came under attack. Let the UN chew on that for a bit. Yet, as the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, disrupts Iran’s supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon, all Israel can say is thanks a lot.     

The HTS leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, now stands to become Syria’s next strongman. Once an adherent of al Qaeda’s global jihadism, he now vows to stay within Syria’s borders. He acknowledged that by dismantling a top Assad protector, Hezbollah, Israel has helped his battle. He is also claiming he’d live in peace with all neighbors, including Israel. Here too a wait-and-see approach is better than leaping to ally with Jihadists.   

The Syrian regime has ruled since, in 1970, Hafez Al-Assad led a military coup that installed his dictatorship. After his death in 2000, his son Bashar took over. Democracy-oriented rebels attempted to overthrow the regime in 2012, at the height of the so-called Arab “spring.” President Obama’s “red line” on the use of chemicals was never enforced. Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and others rushed to Mr. Assad’s aid and became dominant in the region. 

This year Israel weakened Hezbollah and Iran. A new paradigm emerged. With Russia busy in Ukraine and the mullahs newly vulnerable, the Turkey- and Qatar-allied Jihadists are making their move. They are far from trustworthy, and with too much power — and possibly armed with Assad’s chemicals — they could turn into a dangerous foe for America and our allies. Yet, for now, Trump has it right — watch events unfold.

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This editorial has been updated from the bulldog edition.