In the Republic of China on Taiwan, a pivotal presidential election on January 13 will boil down to a contest between serious Taiwan nationalists and old-time Chinese “Nationalists.” Both sides are staunchly anti-communist but have quite different ideas about steering clear of the wrath of the “People’s Republic of China.”

Much to the chagrin of the Communist Chinese party boss, Xi Jinping, watching from the mainland, the Taiwan nationalist candidate has emerged as the likely winner against the candidate of the Kuomintang, the Nationalist Party, now  cozying up to Beijing nearly 75 years after its defeat by Mao’s Red Army.

Taiwanese Chinese, a majority of the island’s 23 million people, see themselves as a de facto nation and fear Communist China absorbing them. Taiwan, formally known as the “Republic of China,” they argue, is fiercely self-governing, totally separate from Beijing’s “People’s Republic of China.”

Against that background, the latest poll shows the leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te, to be the favorite of 35.3 percent of the voters as opposed to 28.7 percent for the mayor of Taiwan’s largest city, New Taipei, Hou You-yi, and 24 percent for a former Taipei mayor, Ko Wen-je.

“More than 19 million Taiwanese voters will go to the presidential polls,” said the South China Morning Post at communist ruled Hong Kong, predicting the election would “shape cross-strait relations as well as US-China relations.”

The great difference between Mr. Lai, now vice president under Tsai Ing-wen, president since 2016, and Mr. Hou is that Mr. Lai scarcely hides his view that Taiwan, 90 miles across the Taiwan Straits from the mainland, loves the reality of independence from Beijing while agreeingTaiwan should maintain the “status quo.”

Mr. Xi is not accepting that reassurance. “All Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” Mr. Xi said in his New Year’s address. “China will surely be reunified.”

While those words seem like the rhetoric that’s emanated from Beijing since 1949, Mr. Xi clearly would like to influence the outcome. The proof is Beijing is sending fighter planes and warships close to Taiwan’s waters while lofting at least three observation balloons over the island — a campaign of intimidation that’s been going on ever since the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, led a congressional delegation to Taipei in August 2022.

At stake is the basic issue of Taiwan’s “sovereignty” — and its right as an independent entity not only to govern itself but also to play a role on the international stage.

“Beijing’s goal has always been to eradicate Taiwan’s sovereignty,” said Taiwan’s foreign ministry. “Faced with China’s aggressive oppression and threats, political parties should collectively support the government in defending national sovereignty and present a united front externally, aligning with the expectations of the Taiwanese majority.”

As candidate for the Kuomintang or Nationalist Chinese Party, Mr. Hou believes Taiwan should vastly improve relations with Beijing in the interests of business, security, and blood ties.

The candidate for the much smaller Taiwan People’s Party,  Mr. Ko has carved out a niche in which he argues he can have it both ways. In favor of improving ties with Beijing, he believes that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait “need peace” despite differences between the two “systems.”

Beijing would vastly prefer either of them to Mr. Lai. The candidate has exposed his “true face” as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan independence,” said a Chinese foreign ministry official at Beijing. The official calls Mr. Lai a “destroyer of cross-Straits peace and instigator of Taiwan-Straits conflicts.”

Just what Beijing will do if Mr. Lai takes over, however, is far from clear. Communist China now is suffering not only from economic difficulties but also from divisions at the top levels of the enormous People’s Liberation Army.

Reuters has reported the ouster of top military officers in corruption scandals, while Mr Xi invests heavily in modernizing the PLA. Two defense ministers have vanished since losing  their jobs, and “more heads will roll,” one analyst was quoted as predicting.

Under the circumstances, if Mr. Lai wins, it’s quite possible that Mr. Xi will simply resort to the usual intimidation exercises and propaganda while Mr. Lai goes on touting Taiwan’s de facto “independence” — and letting it go at that.

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Correction: Lai Ching-te is the vice president of Taiwan. An earlier version misstated his name.