When the NFL sets its schedule, there’s no way to know which teams will still be in the hunt for a playoff spot come December. In the penultimate week of 2005, everything worked out for maximum drama, with multiple games pitting teams on the postseason bubble against each other.

The final week of the season, however, will not be so dramatic. Only four playoff spots remain open, and four teams can secure them simply by beating a non playoff opponent. Only one game features two possible playoff teams, Cincinnati at Kansas City, but the Bengals are already AFC North champs, and the game only matters to the Chiefs if Pittsburgh is upset by hapless Detroit.

Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, as Michael David Smith pointed out in yesterday’s New York Sun, no team that needed a win in the final week to make the postseason has ever reached the Super Bowl. Still, hope springs eternal, and fans would rather see their favorite team in the playoffs than not.

Is there any reason to believe that one of these postseason bubble teams will blow its shot at the playoffs by falling to an inferior opponent? Here’s a look, from the least likely upset to the most likely. Capsules may reference Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average system (DVOA), which breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent.

NEW ORLEANS (3-12) VS. TAMPA BAY (10-5)

Even if they lose, the Bucs can only miss the playoffs through a complicated series of wins and losses by other teams that would end in the NFL’s convoluted “strength of victory” tiebreaker.

Not only does DVOA rank New Orleans among the 10 worst teams in every facet of the game, but the Saints also want to lose. If Houston beats San Francisco, it creates a logjam of 3-13 teams that could also include the Saints, Jets, and Packers, leaving the top pick in the 2006 draft to be decided by strength of schedule. Though the final week could change things, right now this scenario would end up giving New Orleans the no. 1 pick and the right to choose highly touted USC running back Reggie Bush.

DETROIT (5-10) VS. PITTSBURGH (10-5)

Sure, the Lions have five wins, but the best team they beat was Baltimore (6-9), and that was three months ago. The Lions have only one advantage over the Steelers: thanks to defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson, they are the best team in the league preventing runs up the middle, which should limit Pittsburgh’s ability to use Jerome Bettis.

But that’s fine with the Steelers, who will instead run the speedy Willie Parker to the outside or throw the ball to Hines Ward and Heath Miller. Or perhaps the Steelers’ defense – ranked second in DVOA behind Chicago – will just harass Lions quarterback Joey Harrington into turnover after turnover.

N.Y. GIANTS (10-5) VS. OAKLAND (4-11)

The Giants have already clinched at least a wild card, but a win would get them the NFC East title and bring the NFL playoffs to the Meadowlands for the first time since the Jets hosted Indianapolis in 2002.

Can Oakland exploit the Giants’ weaknesses? Eli Manning is still inaccurate, and that can lead to interceptions – except the Raiders have just five interceptions all year, last in the league. The generally strong Giants’ run defense is susceptible to runs around left end, giving up 7.1 yards per carry, 31st in the league. Opponents are starting to take advantage: the Giants have faced more left end runs in their last three games (33) than they did in their first 12 games (33). But Oakland’s running back will be Zach Crockett, usually a straight-ahead goal-line specialist, instead of injured starter LaMont Jordan.

ST. LOUIS (5-10) VS. DALLAS (9-6)

Dallas only has a shot at the playoffs if Washington or Carolina loses. St. Louis has the league’s most consistent offense because, while both the passing game and running game have been inconsistent, one is always good when the other is bad. Since stopping the run has been Dallas’s Achilles’ heel for the entire season, the Rams have a chance to win if running back Steven Jackson is having one of his good days.

The Cowboys need a few bounces to go their way, which could happen considering that Drew Bledsoe has been sacked 47 times, and sacks often lead to fumbles. Of course, the Rams have the same problem: Their quarterbacks have been sacked 44 times and their offense has fumbled 21 times, only two fewer than Dallas. And while the Dallas defense can’t stop the run, the St. Louis defense can’t stop anything.

WASHINGTON (9-6) VS. PHILADELPHIA (6-9)

Washington is in with a win; if the Giants lose, they could be division champions as well. Quarterback Mark Brunell is listed as probable with a sprained knee, and Washington’s chances of being upset become much higher if he cannot play.

Brunell’s resurgence is a key reason behind Washington’s winning record, and the drop to backup Patrick Ramsey is substantial. The Redskins will have a hard time depending on running back Clinton Portis to win this game, because while everything else has gone wrong for the Eagles this year, one asset remains: their run defense, ranked third in the league by DVOA. Of course, the Eagles still have to score. Since Donovan McNabb’s season ended with an injury seven weeks ago, the Eagles have the lowest offensive DVOA in the league, including less than four net yards per pass attempt.

CAROLINA (10-5) VS. ATLANTA (8-7)

If they lose, the Panthers still make the playoffs as long as Dallas or Washington also loses. That’s good news, because while the Falcons are a mediocre team, they are also a division rival trying to prove they can post two straight winning seasons, something the franchise has never done.

Atlanta’s offense is built around the run, and while the Panthers have been a top run defense for most of the season, they were completely trampled by Dallas last week – especially tackle Jordan Carstens, who was pushed five yards backwards by Dallas guard Larry Allen on nearly every play.

Atlanta will need to run the ball to keep their terrible defense off the field. Steve Smith, this year’s best wide receiver, is licking his chops at the prospect of facing an Atlanta secondary playing without its best cornerback, the injured DeAngelo Hall.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders.com.