It should come as no surprise that the U.S. men’s water polo team came into these Beijing Games with less than lofty expectations — considering that Las Vegas is putting the odds at 80:1 for the team to win an Olympic gold medal, and 15:1 to just make the podium. The long-shot odds made sense, given the American men didn’t even qualify for the elimination rounds of the 2004 Athens Games.

But after yesterday’s 12-11 win over Italy, the team has now won two straight games to begin this year’s competition, matching its win total from four years ago, and it looks poised to exceed its modest pre-competition goals. Before the water polo bandwagon gets too crowded, though, it’s important to note that the Americans must climb some major hurdles to even think about getting on the podium.

The nail-biter over the slightly favored Italians yesterday, combined with a sloppy 8-4 win against overmatched China on Sunday, were crucial for the ninth-ranked Americans to advance past pool play. But now the team must face two water polo heavyweights, Serbia and Croatia. Those teams are expected to be in the thick of the medal race, and should serve as an accurate barometer for just how much the Americans have improved since 2004.

Any chance of scoring upsets in those two games will likely involve replicating the balanced scoring the Americans displayed against Italy. Nine players combined to score the team’s 12 goals, three of them coming from Jeff Powers.

For quite some time, European powerhouses such as Hungary, Serbia, and Russia — all of whom have benefited greatly from year-round team training and lucrative professional leagues across their continent — have dominated the water polo scene. The last time an American squad made the Olympic podium was in 1988 with a silver medal in Seoul, South Korea.

What’s important to note is that, while all but one of the team players hails from California, several of the Americans play professionally overseas, thus hindering the development of a sense of cohesiveness within the water polo program. It has been hard for the team to gain any sort of chemistry with players scattered around the world for nine months out of the year, only to come together hastily for major international competition. And it hasn’t helped that the program has been in great upheaval since 2004, with four coaches in four years. Luckily for first-year coach Terry Schroeder, a former team captain, this recent success could be a sign that this might just be the year American water polo returns to glory.

This is the first Olympic Games since 1992 in which the team features more than three returning players, with seven members coming back to avenge the disappointing results in Athens. The odds may be against them making the podium in Beijing, but two early wins mean it’s impossible to do worse than last time.

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