Speaker Johnson is flirting with political danger in the race to put together a budget deal.

“We are in uncharted territory, in so much as it seems almost impossible to find agreement between Congress, the speaker, the incoming president, and the billionaire advisor,” a Republican political strategist based in Washington, D.C., Matthew Bartlett, tells the Sun. “You have a lot of different equities pulling and pushing.”

The government shutdown is looming at midnight after Republicans dropped an initial budget agreement following opposition from President-elect Trump and Elon Musk. Then a plan B, Trump-backed budget proposal failed Thursday night after 38 Republicans revolted against it, citing fiscal concerns.

Ahead of a January 3 vote on Johnson’s reelection as speaker, the contentious budget debacle has left Mr. Johnson with a “a very difficult job” and an “uncertain” political future, Mr. Bartlett says. “The only saving grace is there is no heir apparent that could potentially do any better.”

As for the dozens of Republicans who voted against the second budget plan on Thursday, they have been left vulnerable to potential retribution from Trump in the 2026 midterm elections.

Congressman Chip Roy, for instance, rallied against the Trump-backed budget plan, calling it fiscally irresponsible and  “absolutely ridiculous.” 

Trump fired back on Truth Social by calling Mr. Roy the “very unpopular ‘Congressman’ from Texas,” saying that he was “getting in the way” of the deal “for the sake of some cheap publicity for himself.”

“Republican obstructionists have to be done away with,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Weak and ineffective people like Chip have to be dismissed as being utterly unknowledgeable as to the ways of politics, and as to Making America Great Again.”

In a follow up thread, Trump said he hopes “some talented challengers are getting ready in the Great State of Texas to go after Chip in the Primary. He won’t have a chance!”

Although the budget showdown has raised tensions between Trump and the Republican “obstructionists” who opposed him on Thursday, Mr. Bartlett says it’s unlikely to have a major effect on their political futures. 

“Typically, those members are from very, very conservative districts. They are beloved by their base,” he says, adding that this could be “water under the bridge” in two years.

“I think what will happen and transpire the next two years will be far more consequential than what happened last night,” he says. 

As for what the opposition means for Trump and his goals as he heads into office soon, Mr. Bartlett says this could be his way of “testing the electric fence.”

 “Trump is feeling out, seeing where he has opposition, why, and then finding a way to overcome it,” he says. “At heart, Trump is a deal maker.”

Many Democrats have spent Friday criticizing Elon Musk for his input in the budget process, calling him “President Musk” to needle Trump as they oppose what they see as the billionaire’s undue influence in the democratic process. 

“There were multiple tweets by Musk on Wednesday, threatening members that they would be primaried if they support it,” Representative Debbie Dingell told CNN on Friday. “I don’t think unelected billionaires should be allowed to threaten elected — that’s not the democratic process — and suddenly we didn’t have a deal.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Musk shows no signs of backing down: “Either the government should pass sensible bills that actually serve the people or shut it down!,” he wrote on X on Friday. 

Asked about Mr. Musk’s influence, Mr. Bartlett says it’s not a bad thing to have an “amazing inventor” who has “transformed today into the future” weighing in on politics.

“Democrats may be stomping mad, but most Americans probably agree that things have not worked well,” he says. “So the notion that someone who has been so innovative and efficient in business in the private sector, looking at government, playing an outsider role, cheering where there is good and pointing out where there needs to be improvement — I’m not sure that’s the worst thing in the world.”