As a conflict between two Sudanese warlords intensifies, the Biden administration is sending Marines to nearby Djibouti in case Americans would need to be evacuated. Could America be doing more to avert a protracted war that could harm our interests?

“We are deploying additional capabilities nearby in the region for contingency purposes related to securing and potentially facilitating the departure of U.S. Embassy personnel from Sudan, if circumstances require it,” the Pentagon said in a statement Thursday. 

Beyond embassy personnel, some 19,000 Americans are caught in street battles between the national army and a militia known as the Rapid Support Forces. At least 330 people were killed in the fighting this week. Intense street-to-street combat is ongoing between militants answering to a pair of ambitious generals vying for control of Africa’s third-largest country. 

The United Nations secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, is asking for a three-day ceasefire to respect Friday’s Eid al-Fitr holiday that marks the end of Ramadan. The sides tentatively agreed to a 24-hour ceasefire, but a similar agreement earlier this week broke down soon after it came into effect.

Several foreign embassies have developed plans to leave the capital, where most of the battles take place. The European Union’s ambassador in the country, Aidan O’Hara, an Irish national, was assaulted in his Khartoum residency on Tuesday, leading to heightened fears among foreign diplomats.

In a briefing at the UN earlier this week, Mr. Guterres’s special envoy in Sudan, Volker Perthes, said he was “disappointed” that mediation conducted by the world body, the Arab League, and the African Union has so far failed to ease the hostilities. In addition, several non-governmental groups, the EU, and others have tried to mediate between the sides. 

America, as part of a “quad” that also includes South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and Britain, is also attempting to find a solution that would end the fighting. Even Israel, which has relations with both generals, is attempting to urge them to end the war.

Sudan joined the regional peace drive known as the Abraham Accords in 2020, but America suspended aid after the military overthrew the government and Khartoum halted the peace treaty signing process. Military ties between Israel and Sudan remained tight nevertheless, including relations with the currently warring generals. 

Too many mediating cooks have so far mostly managed to spoil the dish. An agreement seems elusive, and hostilities are intensifying between forces loyal to the army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

“Everybody is meddling and things are never moving forward,” the founder of the International Center for Dialog Initiative, Jamal Benomar, tells the Sun. “They all want to accommodate these two guys.”

A former UN envoy for peace in Yemen who continues to travel extensively in the Arab world, Mr. Benomar says that while world diplomats have accommodated the two Khartoum generals, they failed to use leverage to edge Sudan into a more participatory democracy.

Specifically, he says, America could have used the power of sanctions to influence such a transition. 

America’s interest in Sudan peaked during the genocidal war in Darfur, launched in 2003. The government of a long-time dictator, Omar al-Bashir, committed ethnic cleansing and war crimes alongside a militia known as the Janjaweed, which was accused of the bulk of the atrocities that appalled the world. 

General Degalo, widely known as Hemedti, or “Little Mohamed,” a former camel trader, first came to power as a Janjaweed leader, and later rose in the army ranks. He is now leading the fight against General al-Barhoun, which includes a contest for control of resources like the country’s gold mines. 

One player who has formed alliances with both generals is the Russian paramilitary group Wagner; its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, sent troops to Sudan. Forging ties with the generals, miners with Mr. Prigozhin’s M group took over much of the gold industry.

The M group was sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury for its activities in Sudan and elsewhere. Nevertheless, Russian planes loaded with gold reportedly flew to Latakia, Syria, from Sudan and from there to Moscow, to help finance the Ukraine war. 

The war in Sudan could be a short episode or turn into a prolonged conflict that would draw in many bad world actors. For now, the Marines need to care for American citizens caught in the crossfire, and if evacuation is needed the hope is that it does not resemble the exit from Afghanistan.

Down the road, though, it is incumbent on Washington to avoid adding Sudan to the growing list of countries where America is fast losing influence.