Set Your Watch on Lyapunov Time — and Check It Often
I hope, then, too, that our mathematicians forgive the appropriation of the term. For Europe is fast approaching its Lyapunov horizon. As Ukraine continues to fight, prewar certainties are fast dissipating — first among them, the belief that Europe would watch as Ukraine fell.
The mathematical concept of “Lyapunov time” is essentially the span in which it is possible to predict the state of a chaotic system. Though incomputable for human events, the idea of a forecasted horizon at which predictability fails is useful in assessing these aforementioned events — like the current war.
I hope, then, too, that our mathematicians forgive the appropriation of the term. For Europe is fast approaching its Lyapunov horizon. As Ukraine continues to fight, prewar certainties are fast dissipating — first among them, the belief that Europe would watch as Ukraine fell.
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