Secretary Yellen Is Off to Communist China
What credibility is she going to have at Beijing when fiscal and monetary policy in America are in disarray?
Our Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, is off Thursday to China, on a mission that even the administration doesnât expect to be a success. Ms. Yellen once resisted before Congress the idea of holding the Federal Reserve to even a voluntary, non-binding monetary guideline that the Fed would set itself. Now she seems intent on establishing some kind of rules in respect of how the communist party runs the worldâs second biggest economy.
Good luck, we say. What credibility is she going to have at Beijing when fiscal and monetary policies in America are in disarray? The dollar is not defined in law. Our debts are larger than our annual output. Inflation is running at 4 percent. With all the inflation, weâre going to be repaying our debts to China with dollars that are worth less than those it lent to us. How does one say in Chinese, âHey, what kind of racket is that?â?
The mandarins at Beijing, we imagine, are as aware as we are of the greenbackâs slide as measured in the real basis of monetary value, gold. With Ms. Yellen at the Treasuryâs helm, the dollar is now worth little more than its record low, set during Covid, of a 2,075th of an ounce of gold. During her tenure at the Fed, the dollar sank a little more than 5 percent, to a 1,333rd of a gold ounce in February 2018 from a 1,262nd four years earlier.
The greenbackâs plunge under Ms. Yellenâs stewardship could explain why Communist China is among the nations looking for âalternatives to the dollar,â as the Financial Times put it in a dispatch in May. At a time when central banks around the world are purchasing gold at a pace not seen since the heyday of Bretton Woods, âa key question,â the FT says, is âwhat role gold will play in Beijingâs plans to internationalize the renminbi.â
Mr. Xiâs proposal to begin âsettling payments for Saudi oil and gasâ in Chinaâs currency, the FT reports, citing financial analysts, âwill only gain tractionâ if the currency âcan be converted into gold.â Noting that Chinaâs central bank âhas the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world,â some $3.2 trillion, the FT observes that Beijing âhas reported adding gold for six months running.â
The âsustained gold purchases,â a McKinsey partner, Oliver Ramsbottom, suggest âa long-term policy to loosen capital controls,â boosting âthe renminbiâs challengeâ to the dollar. Mr. Xi could be thinking along the same lines as Brazilâs leftist president, Lula da Silva, who professed to wonder âwhy every country needs to trade in the dollarâ and asked âWho decided it was the dollar after the disappearance of the gold standard?â
Faced with these headwinds to the dollarâs âexorbitant privilegeâ â which enables America to run large budget and trade deficits at relatively low cost â one could imagine President Biden and his economic advisers would be battening down the hatches and trying to strengthen the greenback. Instead, Ms. Yellenâs mission to Beijing, following Secretary Blinkenâs recent expedition, conveys the impression of America as a supplicant.
That impression is bolstered by the fact that Mr. Xi and his camarilla can reckon how much America will need to borrow in the years to come as a result of our failure to curb federal overspending. Uncle Sam will need as much as $20 trillion over the next decade alone, Veronique de Rugy notes in these columns, pointing to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, and $114 trillion in the next three decades.
Ms. de Rugy asks whether it is âcredibleâ to imagine that investors will agree to buy all this debt, especially as âChina and Japan have already reduced their holdings of American bonds.â So no wonder Ms. Yellen is off to Beijing, hat in hand, making another attempt to rekindle the illusion of friendship â a âmini-thaw,â optimists call it â between two nations with what increasingly appear to be different values.