A Republican presidential candidate has not won Miami-Dade County in more than 30 years. However, early data voting seems to suggest that the longtime Democratic stronghold is shifting further out of the party’s grasp in Florida.

With one week left until Election Day, Republicans feel optimistic about what they see from early voting numbers at Miami-Dade County. 

As of Monday, roughly 500,000 people had voted early, either by mail or absentee ballots, at the county, and Democrats are trailing Republicans by six points. That statistic represents a significant shift from the same time four years ago, when Democrats held a 12-point advantage, according to a tally by the Miami-Herald. 

Democrats hold an advantage in mail-in ballots, but Republicans have the advantage for in-person early voting. 

Early voting data can provide some potential glimpses of election turnout. However, the numbers do not give any answers about who people are voting for. And until Election Day, it will not be known if the surge was simply the result of Republicans choosing to vote early instead of in person on November 5 or indicative of a larger groundswell of support for the party.

Republicans are optimistic either way. The chairman of the Miami-Dade Republican Party, Alex Rizo, said at a rally over the weekend, “We are making history…We are going to have the greatest turnout in Miami-Dade history.”

Democrats are not thrilled about the numbers, but they are hopeful their advantage in voter registrations at the county will eventually overcome the early Republican vote. The chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party told the Herald, “We still have eight days in front of us. We’re going to keep closing the gap. That’s what we’re working toward.”

The surge in early voting numbers for Republicans comes as recent elections show the party making inroads in the county. In 2016, President Trump won Florida but lost Miami-Dade by nearly 300,000 votes. Senator Rubio also won his re-election bid that year but failed to carry the county.

In 2020, Trump significantly narrowed the margin at Miami-Dade, losing the county to President Biden by just more than 85,000 votes. Two years later, Governor DeSantis became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the county since 2002. 

If Trump wins Miami-Dade, he will be the first Republican presidential candidate to do so since 1988.