The outcomes of three races Tuesday could set the tone for both the national environment and key congressional races in the Empire State going into the fall.

19th District 

The special election in New York’s 19th district stands as the last good electoral test of the country’s political mood before the election season begins in earnest. 

The race will pit the Republican Dutchess County executive, Marcus Molinaro, against the Democratic Ulster County executive, Patrick Ryan. They are running to replace Antonio Delgado, who is now lieutenant governor.

When Mr. Delgado left his seat to become Governor Hochul’s second in command earlier this year, he left an open position in a nearly evenly split district. 

Given the competitiveness, it will stand as the final electoral data point in a summer that has seen political winds shift in the Democrats’ favor following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. 

A Democratic victory in the 19th district would cast doubt over 2022’s status as a “red wave” election cycle and put the GOP on the back foot going into the fall.

As it stands now, Mr. Molinaro is leading in the polls. Congressman John Faso, who once served the district, told the Sun that the race could go either way on election day.

23rd District

In New York’s new 23rd district, which stretches from the Finger Lakes across the Southern Tier and up into Buffalo’s southern and eastern suburbs, the New York Republican Party chairman, Nicholas Langworthy, will be facing off against businessman Carl Paladino for the Republican nomination.

The winner will be up against the Tioga County Democratic Committee chairman, Maxwell Della Pia, in November. Mr. Della Pia is also running in the special election against a Conservative Party candidate, Joseph Sempolinski, to serve out the rest of Congressman Thomas Reed’s term.

Mr. Reed announced that he would not run for Congress this year after he faced accusations of sexual misconduct, which also ended Mr. Reed’s gubernatorial aspirations.

The 23rd district’s special election is seen as a battle between two wings of the Republican Party. Mr. Paladino is competing against Mr. Langworthy, an establishment-backed candidate who is chairman of the New York Republican Party.

Mr. Paladino has been widely scrutinized throughout the campaign for a variety of unsavory comments both old and new, including, most recently, the surfacing of an interview in which he appeared to compliment Adolf Hitler.

Mr. Langworthy’s entrance into the race looks to be an intervention by the Republican establishment to try to keep the gaffe-prone politician from sailing to victory in the district this autumn.

The new 23rd district overlaps with the old 23rd as well as the old 27th district. Although the new district maps have not been tested yet, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 23-point advantage.

10th District 

It’s a crowded field in the race to fill the seat in New York’s newly created 10th district, which covers most of Lower Manhattan and a swath of northwestern Brooklyn.

The district, which FiveThirtyEight rates as being nearly 70 points in favor of Democrats, will almost certainly be represented by whoever wins the Democratic primary there.

The incumbent, Congressman Mondaire Jones, represents New York’s 17th district; because of redistricting, he will face off against 11 other candidates who want to challenge the Republican nominee, Cathy Bernstein, in the general election.

Despite Mr. Jones’s incumbency, the race is anyone’s game. Because New York uses a plurality voting system in congressional races, the race could easily go to a candidate who receives less than 20 percent of the popular vote.

An attorney who is heir to the Levi Strauss and Company fortune, Daniel Goldman, has become a quick favorite after spending $4 million of his own money on his congressional campaign.

Mr. Goldman has also received the key endorsement of the New York Times, which in such a divided field could secure him a plurality of the vote. President Trump also sarcastically endorsed Mr. Goldman last week.

The Times’s endorsement of Mr. Goldman drew immediate backlash from the progressives of the party in New York’s 10th district, though they have yet to rally around a single candidate ahead of Tuesday’s election.

Other Races To Watch

In New York’s first congressional district, businesswoman Michelle Bond, businessman Anthony Figliola, and a Suffolk County legislator, Nicholas LaLota, will face off in the Republican primary.

The winner of the primary will face the Democratic nominee, Bridget Flemming, in a competition to replace Congressman Lee Zeldin, who is running for governor.

In New York’s 14th district, veteran Desi Cuellar will face off against a social media personality, Tina Forte, for the Republican nomination. Whoever wins this election will compete against Congresswoman Alexandria Occasio-Cortez in what will inevitably become a high-profile congressional election.

New York’s new 12th district, which combines the east and west sides of much of Manhattan, will see Congressman Jerrold Nadler, Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney, and attorney Suraj Patel run against each other.

Mr. Nadler and Ms. Maloney have each represented two different parts of New York City in Congress for 30 years and have been historic allies in the House, with a similar coalition of supporters and a comparable list of progressive accomplishments. Only after 2022’s redistricting have they been forced to compete.

Although the Times has endorsed Mr. Nadler for the seat, the race could go either way. The only certainty is that one of the two long-standing representatives from New York will see their congressional career end, at least for now.