It’s a special occasion when Patek Philippe — arguably the most prestigious watch brand in all of horology — announces a new watch. The watch world will come together to give their thoughts on the latest release — whether they like it or not — and what it says about the watch world generally.

October’s launch of the Cubitus should have been even more significant, given that it’s not only a new model but a whole new line for Patek Philippe, their first in 25 years. And it’s not a dress watch, entry-level offering, or unique, high-end line either; it’s a new sports watch, joining their iconic Aquanaut and Nautilus.

This should have mattered a lot. And yet, the whole moment was just a massive disappointment. The Cubitus didn’t say much about the watch industry as a whole and wasn’t very interesting. The biggest takeaway was that Patek Philippe has lost their edge.

To start with the design: it’s not just ugly, but lazy. It’s like an AI image of a square Nautilus or what it would look like if you combined it with the extremely popular, far cheaper, and far more stylish Cartier Santos. There’s nothing original or interesting about it. It uses the Nautilus dial, band, and case construction but now in a square shape and comes in the same colors.

It also is just too big. It only comes in one size, 45mm — bigger than any Santos — and if that wasn’t a large size already, square dials wear much bigger on the wrist. It doesn’t just make this watch worse; it’s remarkably short-sighted given that small watches are getting increasingly popular, including for men. If anything, the Cubitus should have shrunk down from the Aquanaut and Nautilus, and that would have at least made it stand out a little. But no.

Beyond the design, the positioning and purpose of this watch makes no sense. If you listen to their CEO, Thierry Stern, it’s a new entry-level model for their sports watch line, so you’d think it would compete for the Santos customer. But it starts at $40K. The highest-end Nautilus — the calendar in platinum — is $88,378. These are very comparable prices to the Aquanaut and Nautilus, and the only reason you’d buy this over one of those — which are better looking, with real heritage, and proven resale value — is that these will be marginally easier to get.

It’s not like this watch will increase their sales volumes either. Instead, Patek is slimming down the options available for the Aquanaut and Nautilus, moving them further up the market, and using the Cubitus to plug the gap. Overall production volumes of the lineup will stay roughly the same, but this will now be spread over three models instead of two. Patek killed their steel versions of those models over the past few years, so if you want to get a new steel sports watch, you’ll go for the Cubitus, and if your heart is set on an Aquanaut or Nautilus, you’ll have to move into precious metals and more expensive complications and spend more.

The irony is that Patek wasn’t wrong about the need to introduce a new model. They are far too dependent on the Nautilus and Aquanaut, and if the popularity of those models fades and a different style comes into fashion, Patek is in trouble. Those watches have been Golden Geese for Patek, but building your business around two mortal birds — to extend a weak metaphor — is risky.

Audemars Piquet also had this problem with the dominance of the Royal Oak; and in 2019, aimed to solve this with their new line named Code 11.59. The name doesn’t sound like “Royal Oak;” they don’t look like the Royal Oak, and they start at $10,000 less than the Cubitus. It was met with skepticism, but it has been refined over time, and its popularity has continued to grow, particularly with the introduction of new, special edition models, from chronographs to the Openworked model.

The Cubitus doesn’t solve that problem for Patek; it might make it worse. It’s a lame rip-off of their best models, making them more vulnerable to changes in taste than the legacy models, while simultaneously reducing their sales and limiting them to more exclusive but generally less desirable skews. The Nautilus and Aquanaut are best in steel — that’s what made them unique and famous. If you’re worried about being overly dependent on those models and what would happen if their sales floor fell out, why eliminate the exact variants that made them so beloved?

The main winner of this all? Owners and resellers of steel Aquanauts and Nautilus.