These are the best of times and the worst of times for Mayor Bloomberg – and he might not even know it. During the last several months, he has more firmly established his identity as mayor and been rewarded with rising job approval ratings. At the same time, he has been finding his voice as a reformer – taking brave, if overdue, stands against the entrenched bureaucratic special interests that define politics as usual in New York. Crime is dropping, and there is a growing sense that the city is generally moving in the right direction. If this mayor has not always appeared decisive, he has not been divisive.

Which is why Wednesday’s Marist Poll was a wake-up call. It presents an early snapshot of an electorate that feels no loyalty to this mayor. New Yorkers are not only apathetic about this administration, a majority, 53%, say that it’s time to elect someone else. In a hypothetical head-to-head match up against the former president of the Bronx, Fernando Ferrer, our incumbent mayor loses by a staggering 51% to 39% among registered voters. Mr. Bloomberg is tied with the uninspired prospective candidacies of the president of Manhattan, C. Virginia Fields, and the speaker of the City Council, Gifford Miller. Even with all the benefits of incumbency, he beats only the protest candidacy of City Council Member Charles Barron and the rising dark-horse campaign of Rep. Anthony Weiner.

This is not good. A Democratic mayoral candidate falls out of bed with more than 40% of the popular vote locked up. Republican mayors have been in City Hall for the last 11 years in large part because they are seen to be free from the usual obligation to special interests, but there is little margin for error come election time. Compounding Mr. Bloomberg’s problem is that a majority of voters think the mayor is “working hard at his job, fights for the city, understands the city’s problems and is a good leader for New York.” But a majority simultaneously feels that the mayor “does not care about people like themselves” – in other words, they just don’t particularly like the guy. The billionaire barrier has not been cleared.

But as we have seen with the scuttled Bernard Kerik nomination, a week is a long time in politics. Mr. Bloomberg still has time. Only 39% of registered Democrats say they are “strongly committed to their choice,” and Mr. Bloomberg’s approval rating, though it is still below 50%, has been inching upward. A majority of voters say that the city is finally headed in the right direction, and most are not following next years’ mayoral election closely at this time. Mr. Bloomberg’s competence could save his mayoralty after all – but only if the administration makes a conscious decision not to coast toward re-election. Mr. Bloomberg will have to compete aggressively for every vote starting January 1.

Reinventing the mayor’s image at this late date would not only be uncharacteristic but also a waste of time. Which is why the mayor’s team should focus on throwing his strengths into sharper relief. The prescription for Mr. Bloomberg’s uphill but winnable re-election follows the three R’s: reform, renaissance, and responsible leadership.

Reform: Across the state, voters have been expressing increased frustration with the absurd inefficiencies of Albany. Beholden to no traditional political organization, Mayor Bloomberg stands apart from both Governor Pataki and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. He has lately been taking greater advantage of his unique political position, acting on the reformer’s instincts that first led him to run for mayor by taking on the Board of Elections and the MTA. He now needs to move beyond rhetoric by taking real irrevocable actions and adding to his roster a renewed commitment to reforming bilingual education. He must be seen as a man on a mission.

Renaissance: There is a sense that New York City is finally seeing the daylight after the darkness of the post-September 11 era. Voters give the mayor some credit for keeping the city secure from terrorist attacks, and for the drop in crime. But too much of the steady progress has been behind the scenes, and New Yorkers do not think that overall quality of life has improved in the past year. The idea that the New York renaissance is finally back on track needs to be the core message of his campaign.

Which brings us to the final “R” – Responsible Leadership: Voters might not be enamored of Mr. Bloomberg’s personality, but they give him high marks for responsible leadership. There needs to be an elevated sense of consequence to this election, that the progress we’ve made could run seriously off track if we return to local Democratic governance as usual. At stake is not only crime reduction, but the long-term fiscal solvency of our city. These are real concerns, and if the mayor stands further apart from the “good enough for government work” crowd, he can convince voters that his steady leadership is not just temporary but necessary.

For Mr. Bloomberg, the road ahead is the most uphill any incumbent mayor has faced in more than a decade. Unless he and his team take the challenge seriously, this could well be their last New Year’s Day in City Hall.