French recognition of a Palestinian state may be imminent or, in the spirit of Gallic contrarianism, it might not be. The reason for that is a man named Emmanuel Macron, who seemingly ripped a page out of the Bill Clinton playbook of equivocation last week when he said that he is “completely ready to recognize a Palestinian state” but believes that “that this recognition must come at a useful time.”

Contrast that contradictory declaration with the Alpine-clear phrasing of a relatively obscure politician named Marion Maréchal, who serves as executive vice president of the rightist Reconquête, or Reconquest, party. With a nod toward the European parliamentary elections now just one week away, Ms. Maréchal has stated that “a vote for Reconquest is to choose an antidote to the leftist Islamist poison of LFI.” That barb was aimed at Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head of the left-wing LFI or France Unbowed party, which wants France to recognize Palestinian statehood. 

Ms. Maréchal is coincidentally the niece of Marine Le Pen, the three-time French presidential contender who now chairs the National Rally in France’s National Assembly. Reconquest, under the leadership of Éric Zemmour, is now using the kind of pumped up anti-immigrant language that was once mainly the province of the National Rally and its predecessor, the National Front.

She recently told French press that she will be steadfast in her push for a “European project that will resist the Islamization of the continent.” That is a project that strongly disfavors the recognition of a Palestinian state. 

War in the Middle East has arguably reverberated across the spectrum of French politics to a greater degree than it has in Great Britain, which, thanks to Brexit and the looming July showdown between Labor and the Tories at the ballot box, is largely sitting out this chapter of a highly charged fray. There was heated debate in the National Assembly about recognition of a Palestinian state on May 28, the French press reported.

Back to President Macron, whose EU bloc counterparts in Ireland, Spain, and Norway have already formally recognized a Palestinian state. While none of those countries wield the same kind of international clout as France, there is a certain domino effect and pressure on Paris to hew to the emerging EU line. 

And we all know, particularly on the eve of the 80th anniversary of D-Day,  how Paris is prone to handling pressure and to ruffling feathers generally. As it happens, on June 6 — the day Allied forces stormed the beaches of Normandy eight decades ago — Monsieur Macron’s government will host a platoon of diplomats from Germany, Italy, Britain, Poland, and Spain to discuss aspects of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. What French recognition of a Palestinian state could entail will, according to reports in Le Monde and Le Figaro, be high on the meeting’s agenda. 

But that it is on the agenda should surprise no one, nor should the inherent disingenuousness of Macron’s remarks about the issue. According to various French reports the deeply unpopular French president — who is about to kibitz with a deeply unpopular American president — a few days ago phoned the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, in a bid to convince him to “implement the necessary reforms” that would likely be a prerequisite to France giving a green light to statehood recognition. 

It is worth recalling that France’s efforts to tame Hezbollah in southern Lebanon have so far been a complete failure. And in March, France submitted a draft resolution to the UN’s Security Council that called for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages while also referencing the “the day after” the war and the so-called two-state solution. That resolution has yet to be put to a vote.

Far more pressing for Mr. Macron is the upcoming European vote. Heading up his list is Valérie Hayer of the left-leaning Renew Europe coalition — but she, and by extension Mr. Macron is trailing the coalition led by the National Rally chief, Jordan Bardella. Mr. Bardella told the French tabloid newspaper Le Parisien that Macron’s punishment at the polls “must be heavy.”  

Probably it will be. Whatever political capital Mr. Macron had in his first sojourn in the Élysée Palace now seems largely exhausted. But perils lurk. Will the eclectic Frenchman advance recognition for a Palestinian statehood in a bid to co-opt votes from the anti-Israeli left and thereby boost the fortunes of his own flagging Renaissance party? No one knows for sure, but as this correspondent’s grandfather, who fought his way on shore at Utah Beach nearly 80 years ago, once said, “Don’t trust the Frenchies.”