North Carolina’s far-right lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, has entered the state’s much-anticipated 2024 gubernatorial race, likely solidifying a matchup against the Democratic frontrunner, Attorney General Josh Stein. Political observers say Mr. Robinson is the one candidate Mr. Stein could beat in the increasingly conservative state.

At Mr. Robinson’s campaign announcement, he called on North Carolinians to elect someone “who’s actually lived through the struggles of everyday North Carolinians.”

“We don’t need another politician who’s spent their life climbing the political ladder,” Mr. Robinson, who is the state’s first Black lieutenant governor, said. “I know what it’s like to grow up poor, in a household mired by alcoholism, violence, and uncertainty.”

Mr. Robinson, who worked in furniture manufacturing and was an adult student before he entered politics, came out of nowhere on the political scene when a speech he gave on gun rights at a Greensboro city council meeting went viral. He was elected to his current position in 2020, defeating a Democratic state representative, Yvonne Lewis Holley, by 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent.

President Trump carried North Carolina by a smaller margin in the same election, defeating President Biden by 1.34 points.

In the 2024 governor’s race, the sitting governor, Roy Cooper, a popular Democrat, cannot seek re-election due to term limits. Republicans hold a super majority in the state legislature and Mr. Cooper has been the lone Democrat fending off Republicans from having total control of the state.

Since his election, Mr. Robinson has made headlines as a spellbinding orator whose speeches at churches and other venues have spurred criticism of Mr. Robinson’s opinions on gay and trans issues. He has openly encouraged criticism from the press, urging “Right Wing Watch” to take notes while he speaks.

At a church service last month, Mr. Robinson said: “I was not crafted to be Mr. Nicey-Nice. … God formed me because he knew there was going to be a time when God’s learning was going to be intolerable to the wicked. When children were going to be dragged down to go see the drag show. When pornography was going to be presented to our children in schools.”

In a 2021 speech, Mr. Robinson referred to members of the LGBTQ community as “filth,” adding, “and yes I called it filth. And if you don’t like that I called it filth, come see me and I’ll explain it to you.”

Mr. Robinson has also advocated for rolling back the legalization of same sex marriage and claimed in a 2021 speech that the transgender rights movement is “demonic” and “full of the spirit of the antichrist.”

Mr. Robinson has also drawn criticism for a Facebook post from the first year he began public speaking, when he claimed that Marvel’s “Black Panther” was “created by an agnostic Jew and put to film by [a] satanic marxist.”

“How can this trash, that was only created to pull the shekels out of your Schvartze pockets, invoke any pride?” Mr. Robinson wrote. “I know a lot of people here will not like this message. But guess what, I DON’T CARE.”

An associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Miles Coleman, told the Sun that Mr. Robinson is a heavy favorite in the GOP primary despite worries among some Republicans that his outspoken views on various social issues are outside the mainstream.

“In the Republican primary Robinson is going to be an overwhelming favorite,” Mr. Coleman told the Sun. “It’s been a very poorly kept secret in Raleigh that he’s running for governor.”

Mr. Coleman added that “there is a more establishment element that wishes it was someone else,” owing to Mr. Robinson’s history of anti-LGBTQ comments and some remarks criticized as anti-Semitic.

In his analysis, Democrats are hoping that “Robinson is the next coming of Doug Mastriano,” the failed GOP gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania whose far-right views were out of sync with the state’s more moderate voters.

Mr. Coleman and the other editors at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, though, don’t see it that way and are rating North Carolina’s as the only “toss up” gubernatorial race in 2024.

The “toss up” rating comes down to North Carolina remaining a difficult state for Democrats to win, even if they have won the gubernatorial and attorney general races in recent years.

Another issue is that Mr. Robinson has provided Democrats with enough fodder for criticism that they will need to refine their messaging to only the most effective points.

One area where Mr. Coleman thinks Mr. Stein, Mr. Robinson’s likely opponent, is positioned to effectively attack Mr. Robinson is on Mr. Robinson’s comments that have been criticized as antisemitic.

Mr. Stein, who is the first Jewish man in North Carolina history to win statewide election, will have a potent line of personal criticism against Mr. Robinson, who has refused to apologize for his comments.

The contrasts to Mr. Mastriano, who was defeated by a Jewish candidate, are notable.

Mr. Coleman also said that Mr. Robinson’s anti-LGBTQ comments will likely be a potent point for Democrats in the Tar Heel state, where Democrats already started attacking Mr. Robinson on those points.

Upon Mr. Robinson’s announcement, the state Democratic Party chairman, Anderson Clayton, said that Mr. Robinson “is an extremist who has built a legacy of division by spewing hate toward the LGBTQ community.”

While it’s clear that some Republicans in the state might prefer a different candidate, such as the North Carolina treasurer, Dale Folwell, who is facing Mr. Robinson in the primary, it looks like the primary is Mr. Robinson’s to lose, for now.

Mr. Robinson’s office did not immediately reply to a request for comment.