A Gallup poll released on Friday found that 52 percent of Americans say they are not better off now than they were four years ago, the highest percentage of respondents who answered that way since 1992. 

The polling firm notes that this is a “higher-than-usual percent of U.S. adults who say they are worse off.” It attributes the uptick to “Republicans’ much greater likelihood to say this than opponents of the incumbent’s party had been in prior election years.”

Gallup says the sentiment about the economy is “most similar to 1992,” when President Bush lost his re-election bid, and 46 percent of Americans said they were worse off at the time. 

Gallup also noted that its Economic Confidence Index remains at -26, which is “one of the worst election-year readings.” The dissatisfaction comes as respondents listed the economy and inflation as the most important issues facing America. 

“Historical trends suggest that perceptions of personal wellbeing and economic confidence can significantly impact election outcomes. With a majority of Americans feeling they are not better off than four years ago, economic confidence remaining low, and less than half of Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job, the economy will be an important consideration at the ballot box this year,” Gallup says. “As inflation persists and economic concerns dominate voters’ minds, the upcoming election may hinge on which candidate can best address these pressing issues.”

With the election about three weeks away, plenty of metrics are available to try to glean information about who will win, from polls to betting markets to feelings about the economy. However, one data point Gallup says has a “strong” correlation with which candidate wins the White House is party identification. 

For the first time since 1984, when President Reagan won his re-election bid in a landslide, Republicans hold a nationwide advantage regarding the number of Americans identifying with either major party. The closest Republicans came to having an advantage after that year was in 2004, when they were tied with Democrats for party identification. 

RealClearPolitics’ average of polls shows President Trump holds a narrow edge over Vice President Harris in all seven of the most competitive battleground states. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, which is not quite as rosy for Trump, shows he is tied in Michigan and Wisconsin and leading in the five other battleground states.