The Michigan Board of Canvassers is poised to make a final decision this week on whether to include on the November ballot a measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. If the board does so, it could be bad news for Michigan Republicans.

By most accounts, the ballot measure is likely to be approved. Bureau of Election staff report that “the board’s duty is limited to determining whether the form of the petition substantially complies” with form and signature requirements.

Although some opponents of the measure argued that poor spacing on the petition created “strings of gibberish” that would have made it “impossible to understand” for signatories, the board has rejected their arguments.

The board found that the complaints were not substantive enough to disqualify the petition, even though “certain portions of the petition have smaller spaces between words.”

The board also found that the petition contains nearly 600,000 valid signatures, 150,000 more than are required and more than enough for the measure to appear on the ballot.

A political scientist at the University of Michigan, Jonathan Hanson, a former congressional staffer, tells the Sun that “the abortion measure is almost certain to be on the ballot.”

If passed, the measure would create a state constitutional right to “make and effectuate decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy, including but not limited to prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, contraception, sterilization, abortion care, miscarriage management, and infertility care.”

The measure seems likely to pass, with nearly 58 percent of Michiganders telling pollsters that they oppose the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

According to an AARP/Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll, abortion is the no. 1 issue in Michigan’s gubernatorial election. Nearly one in five voters said it was the single most important issue for them.

“This does not bode well for Republicans, as polling suggests the proposed amendment is quite popular and that the Supreme Court’s decision was not,” Mr. Hanson tells the Sun.  

He argues that the presence of the amendment on the ballot would drive up turnout among “voters who were angered by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe. v. Wade,” noting that if the amendment fails, existing Michigan law would make abortion illegal in “nearly all situations.”

Mr. Hanson thinks an abortion question on the ballot would make it hard for GOP candidates like the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Tudor Dixon, to move the conversation away from abortion and toward issues like inflation and school curricula.

Ms. Dixon has said she supports a total ban on abortions, except when the mother’s life is in danger.

The AARP poll found that Governor Whitmer is leading Ms. Dixon by about five points, 51 percent to 46 percent. However, having abortion rights on the ballot could drive up turnout, likely benefiting Democrats, according to an associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Miles Coleman.

“At minimum it’s going to give Democrats another reason to come out,” he tells the Sun. “If it’s anything like Kansas I would say that the pro-choice side is probably going to win overwhelmingly.”

In Kansas, an abortion measure on the ballot inspired record high turnout for a primary election, increasing the total by nearly 50 percent over 2020.

Voters delivered a resounding 59 percent to 41 percent victory in favor of maintaining abortion rights in Kansas, despite polls suggesting the vote would be close.