The sudden rise in the political prospects of a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Michigan after his arrest for participating in the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol has political observers wondering whether being a “J6er” is a boon or a burden for Republican candidates in that state and elsewhere.

Real estate broker Ryan Kelley, who was polling in the single digits until recently, has seen his stock rise, not fall, since his arrest last month on federal charges stemming from the riot. He now holds a slim lead over his nearest competitor, car dealer Kevin Rinke.  

“Extremist candidates tend to do well in primaries in both parties, and the Republican Party in Michigan has been radicalizing even more than most,” a political science professor at Michigan State University, Daniel Slater, told the Sun.

“I strongly suspect that Mr. Kelley’s criminal and insurrectionist behavior on January 6th will win him more primary voters than it loses him,” he added. “But it will likely doom him in the general election and assure four more years of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, which is exactly what Michigan’s Republican voters fear most.”

Mr. Kelley is scheduled to appear in federal court at Washington for a preliminary hearing on Thursday. Michigan’s GOP primary is set for August 2. 

Since his arrest, Mr. Kelley has been pitching himself to voters as a “fighter” and a “political prisoner.” He has turned his participation in the events of January 6 into a point of pride, one that sets him apart from others in the race. He now refers to himself as a “J6er.”

“They talked about it all over the nation, all over the state of Michigan,” Mr. Kelley said in an interview. “It boosted my name. There’s been a ton of support.”

“You want to know who’s the fighter for the people?” Mr. Kelley asked in a debate on Thursday. “Look at the one the left is trying to silence the hardest. I think that’s evident with the FBI raiding my house, intimidating me, my wife, my children, my supporters.

“We will not be intimidated by the radical left,” he said. 

The complaint from the Justice Department accuses Mr. Kelley of entering a restricted area, impeding the orderly conduct of government business, inflicting property violence in a restricted area, and destroying government property.  

Videos from the day appear to show Mr. Kelley standing among the mob on the steps of the Capitol, shouting, “Let’s go. Let’s go. This is war, baby.” Photos entered into evidence apparently show Mr. Kelley climbing over barricades and motioning for other rioters to do the same.

Since his arrest, Mr. Kelley has vaulted to the front of the pack running to unseat Ms. Whitmer, and now leads the field by 1.5 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics. Mr. Kelley enjoys the support of about 15 percent of GOP voters. Mr. Rinke, who has himself questioned the 2020 election results, follows close behind with 13.5 percent support.

Behind him with 10 percent is the former host of the conservative talk show “America’s Voice Live,” Tudor Dixon.  Ms. Dixon has received endorsements from the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, the wealthy DeVos family, and the Michigan senate’s majority leader. She has also received praise from President Trump, who stopped short of an official endorsement.

A political scientist at the University of Michigan, Ken Kollman, said Mr. Kelley’s rise illustrates the divide between Trump loyalists and mainstream Republicans that is being played out across the country.

“Kelley’s surge, even short-lived, can only hurt Dixon and help Riske because he takes votes away from Dixon,” Mr. Kollman said. He is unsure, however, whether that surge can be explained entirely by the January 6 charges.  

“Certainly, for a slice of the Republican electorate, participation in the January 6 violence at the Capitol will stand as a noteworthy candidate attribute,” Mr. Kollman told the Sun. “But I have to believe that that slice is small.”

“If Kelley does well in the primary,” he added, “it will be because the crowded field divides up the mainstream Republican electorate to the point where a small percentage boost for him can make him competitive.”