With crucial American anti-terrorism bases in Africa in peril following the Niger military coup, Washington is yet to develop a coherent strategy to deal with the brewing crisis.  

A week after Niger’s Western-backed president, Mohamed Bazoum, was ousted and confined to his official residence by a group of military generals, America is hesitant to even term the event a military coup. Yet, in a phone call earlier this week, Secretary Blinken assured Mr. Bazoum that America is “committed to the restoration of the democratically elected government.”

How so? Washington’s approach, according to Mr. Blinken, is “consistent with the position of the Economic Community of West African States, the African Union, and international partners.” It is “dedicated to finding a peaceful resolution that ensures that Niger remains a strong partner in security and development in the region.”

Ecowas, which is led by Nigeria, is giving the mutiny leaders until Sunday to restore Mr. Bazoum to power — or else. Yet, it is not clear the measures the western African bloc will take if the junta refuses to comply. Military intervention by Ecowas members is widely hinted at, but far from assured.

An attempt to negotiate a peaceful outcome collapsed Thursday when an Ecowas delegation arrived in Niger but was unable to reach the capital, Niamey, or meet the coup leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani.

On Friday, Mr. Tchiani announced the severing of military ties with the country’s former colonial power, France. Paris shrugged, saying it deals with the president, rather than with “some generals.” American and other Western aid to Niger, one of Africa’s poorest countries, has been suspended, but the generals show no sign of retreat. 

Trying to awaken America, Mr. Bazoum took to the op-ed pages of the Washington Post Thursday to “call on the U.S. government and the entire international community to help us restore our constitutional order.” The people of Niger “will never forget your support at this pivotal moment in our history,” he wrote. 

Mr. Bazoum refutes the generals’ contention that they are restoring security in Niger. Under him, he wrote, security improved  significantly. Conversely, if the junta succeeds, it can only survive assaults from jihadists by turning to Moscow, and “the entire central Sahel region could fall to Russian influence via the Wagner Group, whose brutal terrorism has been on full display in Ukraine,” Mr. Bazoum wrote. 

Ecowas officials and Sahel analysts push back against the possibility that Wagner will intervene to dominate Niger, as it has done in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic. Yet, there is evidence that the mercenary group is contemplating a move.

“According to two Malian sources the former [Niger army’s] Chief of Staff #Mody is at #Bamako ‘to request a rapid deployment from #Wagner to #Niamey,’” a reporter for France 24, Wassim Nasr, tweets, along with a photo of the general at the Malian capital, “departing from the airport with the delegation of the Nigerian junta.” 

The Wagner group’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had been in hiding since his march on Moscow last month, only to reappear last week at his home city of St. Petersburg, posted his own video in support of the “indigenous people” of Niger, who, he claims, have been exploited by “western powers, France, America, and so on.”

Expressing full support for the coup, Mr. Prigozhin says that Western backing of Mr. Bazoum is “why the transformation of Niger was simply necessary.” Indeed, America has at least 1,100 troops in Niger, as does France. Several other Western countries have also deployed troops there.

From two drone bases in Niger, “we are able to collect intelligence over a wide swath of the Sahel and Eastern Africa, all the way from Sudan to Mali, north to Libya, and south to Nigeria,” an Africa watcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Cameron Hudson, told National Public radio.  

Together with Niger’s forces, America is fighting the region’s “ISIS- and Al Qaeda-affiliated offshoots,” Mr. Hudson said. Since 2020, coups have taken place at the Sahel from Sudan on the Red Sea through Chad, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, all the way to Guinea on the Atlantic. On Friday, even relatively stable Ethiopia imposed a military state of emergency due to unrest in its Amhara region. 

As Mr. Hudson notes, the Department of State is hesitant to name Niger’s junta takeover a coup because such a determination would force Congress to suspend all military assistance to the county. Instead, the Biden administration is planning to reduce its military presence in the country and keep “all its options open,” he says. 

Forty-three percent of the world’s deaths from terrorism now occur in the Sahel, and Niger is the only spot there where America can still monitor, combat, and prevent the violence from seeping onto our shores. Relying on Ecowas, hedging our bets, and hoping for the best do not add up to an adequate strategy to resolve this crisis.