Largest Poll of the Election Cycle Finds Harris With a Majority of Support Nationwide as Tens of Millions Cast Early Ballots

The vice president seems poised to win the national popular vote, though the race will likely come down to just a few thousand ballots in swing states.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Harris, speaks to reporters at the Four Seasons Hotel Houston on October 25, 2024 at Houston, Texas. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

In the largest poll taken this election cycle, Vice President Harris has a comfortable lead over President Trump nationally, possibly putting her on track to mirror President Biden’s victory four years ago. The state-by-state polls have tightened significantly since early and mail voting began just weeks ago, however. 

The poll finds that Ms. Harris has a four-point lead over Trump in the national vote, 51 percent to 47 percent. Both candidates win 95 percent of their respective parties while losing four percent to the other nominee, while independents break for Trump by a three-point margin. 

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