Forgive the quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson, if he doesn’t accept the bouquets being thrown his way for leading his team to the brink of the top seed in the National Football League’s upcoming American Football Conference playoffs. He has a long memory.

Mr. Jackson will forever be known as the last player taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Despite a brilliant collegiate career at the University of Louisville — he won the Heisman Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding player in college football — and being considered one of the more dynamic prospects in the draft, four other players at his position were selected ahead of him. 

Thirty-one picks after Baker Mayfield went to Cleveland first overall, 29 picks after the New York Jets took Sam Darnold, and 25 family celebrations after the Buffalo Bills selected Josh Allen, the Ravens tapped Mr. Jackson. A far less decorated thrower, Josh Rosen, was selected 10th overall by the Arizona Cardinals. 

Six seasons later, only Mr. Allen has joined Mr. Jackson in meeting the expectations of the team that drafted him. Messrs. Baker and Darnold have carved out careers as journeymen, playing for multiple teams with middling success. After bouncing between seven teams, Mr. Rosen is out of the league. 

Their struggles make no difference to Mr. Jackson. He knows only that he was passed over time and again. That feeling of being overlooked and doubted serves as motivation driving him toward a second Most Valuable Player award. “We’re always the underdogs,” he said of himself and the Ravens, who can clinch the top seed and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs by beating the Miami Dolphins on New Year’s Eve at Baltimore. “That doesn’t change.”

Mr. Jackson won his first MVP Award in 2019 and quieted many critics, who initially questioned his ability to be a franchise NFL quarterback. Pre-draft reports reckoned that he had poor footwork and was inaccurate as a passer. Scouts questioned his leadership abilities, and harped on his low Wonderlic score. Still, critics question whether he can lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl.

The quest to prove his doubters wrong makes Mr. Jackson resistant to accept praise. The Ravens are, though, winners of five straight games, including a 33-19 triumph at San Francisco Monday night. “Keeping a level head is the most important thing for us right now,” Mr. Jackson said during his weekly press conference. “It was, ‘We don’t know about the Ravens.’ Now, it’s, ‘They’re the no. 1 team.’ We’re not paying any mind to that. I feel like that’s bait.” 

The MVP race is Mr. Jackson’s to lose after his brilliant showing against the 49ers, widely considered the most talented team in the league.  His 252 passing yards with two touchdowns and another 45 yards rushing outshined San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy, another MVP contender, who, in a catastrophic effort, threw four interceptions. 

Analyzing the front-runners for the 2023 MVP award has been a weekly practice during the second half of the season. Mr. Jackson, who has passed for 3,357 yards and 19 touchdowns with seven interceptions this year, is surging. His recent hot streak — featuring nine touchdown passes against two interceptions — has fueled the Ravens’ current winning streak, complementing a stingy defense that has limited foes to 20 points or less in four of the games.

Meanwhile, his competition for the MVP award is fading. Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City), Mr. Allen (Buffalo), Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia), and Mr. Purdy haven’t been nearly as dominant as they were earlier in the year. MVP votes often reflect recency bias, and no one is playing better than Mr. Jackson.

Quarterback Dak Prescott (Dallas) will get some votes, but the Cowboys have struggled on the road. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa could burnish his credentials with a good showing against the Ravens, but he’ll be without two key weapons, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert.

Locking up home-field advantage for the playoffs is crucial. Mr. Mahomes, the reigning champion, has not played a road playoff game before a Super Bowl, while the Bills are underwater on the road this year. The Ravens, meanwhile, are proven road warriors, winning seven out of eight games away from Charm City. They play their final two regular-season games against the Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers on their home fields.

Mr. Jackson reckons that the Ravens’ ability to focus at home and away is a product of proving doubters wrong. “We’re a bunch of guys who have been doubted,” Mr. Jackson said, “a bunch of guys who have things to prove on both sides of the ball.  Anytime we’re the underdogs, we’re going to rise to the occasion, so we have to stay locked in to do that.”

Six years ago, Mr. Jackson had to wait 31 draft picks before hearing his name called. Now, at the apex of his sport, Mr. Jackson claims that he does not pay much attention to the MVP talk. “People have got to have something to talk about,” he said. “I’m just focusing on trying to win.”