With Congress in recess for the next two weeks, members of the House have a chance to take a breath from their speedrun to force a sale of TikTok, debate foreign aid, and fully fund the government. Yet once they return, Speaker Johnson may be forced to cross the aisle to keep his job as frustrations with him mount among conservatives. 

On Friday, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene filed a motion to vacate against Mr. Johnson, the same kind of resolution that was used to remove Speaker McCarthy from the job in October. She did not file the resolution as “privileged,” meaning it does not have a set date to receive a vote — only that could change once she tells the House clerks that she wants to convene a session to remove the 56th speaker. 

“We’ve started the clock to start the process to elect a new speaker,” Ms. Greene told reporters after she filed the motion. “This is not personal against Mike Johnson. He’s a very good man. And I have respect for him as a person. But he is not doing the job.”

She and other conservatives were outraged by a $1.2 trillion government spending agreement Mr. Johnson negotiated with Senator Schumer. When the bill came up for a vote on Friday, more House Republicans voted against it than for it. Ms. Greene says Mr. Johnson deserves to be removed because he has violated GOP conference precedent by breaking the “Hastert Rule,” which states that Republican speakers may only bring up legislation that has the support of a majority of House Republicans.

In October, it only took eight Republicans working with all Democrats to remove Mr. McCarthy. If Mr. Johnson faces a floor vote to remove him, his margin will be much thinner. As of Wednesday, Republicans only have 218 seats in the House, while Democrats have 213. If all Democrats voted to remove the speaker, it would only take three GOP defections to topple Mr. Johnson. 

It could get even worse by late April if Ms. Greene decides to bring up her motion to vacate then. On April 19, Congressman Mike Gallagher will resign from the House, bringing the GOP total down to 217. On April 30, voters at New York’s 26th congressional district will elect a Democrat to replace Congressman Brian Higgins, who resigned in January. Mr. Higgins’s deep-blue district guarantees a Democratic successor, meaning Democrats will be up to 214 House members. 

Should Ms. Greene bring up the motion to vacate in May, Mr. Johnson would only be able to lose two Republicans on the floor. Based on conversations with members of Congress, it is clear that there are more than three GOP lawmakers who would be willing to oust Mr. Johnson. Beside Ms. Greene, other Freedom Caucus lawmakers would likely support the motion. 

The chairman of the caucus, Congressman Bob Good, has refused to vote with the speaker on all major spending issues and has not ruled out supporting a motion to vacate. Congressman Andy Biggs has said the same. Congressman Warren Davidson, frustrated by Mr. Johnson’s lack of leadership on spending and FISA reauthorization, has described his support for Mr. Johnson in October as the “worst” mistake of his congressional career. 

In that situation, Mr. Johnson’s only path to remaining in the speaker’s chair runs through House Democrats. Unlike when Mr. McCarthy was removed, some Democrats say they would be willing to vote to keep Mr. Johnson in the job — but not without serious concessions. 

Democrats could vote with pro-Johnson Republicans to “table,” or kill the motion to vacate before it even comes up for a vote. Congressman Thomas Suozzi says he is open to doing such a thing. Congressman Jared Moskowitz wrote on X that he does “not support Speaker Johnson, but I will never stand by and let MTG … take over the people’s House.”

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says that while she personally could not support the speaker due to his opposition to abortion rights and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, she predicts that many Democrats would help him out. They would not, though, do it “for free,” she says.

The top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, Congressman Adam Smith, says that if Mr. Johnson puts the Senate’s $95 billion foreign aid bill on the floor, then he “will not be removed as Speaker.”

This fear of handing control of House votes over to Democrats has scared some conservative lawmakers in Mr. Johnson’s camp. The architect of Mr. McCarthy’s removal, Congressman Matt Gaetz, says he fears Democrats would strike a deal with a moderate Republican to elevate a GOP “dealmaker” who would essentially do the bidding of the minority leader, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries. 

“When I vacated the last one, I made a promise to the country that we would not end up with a Democrat speaker … I couldn’t make that promise again today,” he told reporters after Ms. Greene filed her motion.