An unprecedented two-year election cycle featuring everything from indictments and assassination attempts to last-minute changes to the top of the ticket and divisive rhetoric about democracy being at risk if either party loses comes to its inevitable conclusion today.

If turnout even before election day is any indication, Americans are eager to get it all over with. Since early voting began, the University of Florida’s Election Lab reports that more than 80 million Americans have already voted — a number that amounts to almost 50 percent of the total votes cast in 2020. 

Roughly 43 million voted early in person, and more than 35 million absentee ballots were returned out of the 66 million requested. The University of Florida’s Election Lab data shows that just fewer than 15 million registered Democrats have voted, while 14.1 million Republicans have, according to data from states that report party registration data. 

Democrats hold a nine percentage point lead among voters who cast their ballot by mail. Republicans have just more than a seven percentage point lead among voters who chose to vote early in person. While early voting numbers can tell campaigns and observers how registered members of the two parties are turning out, they do not provide information about for whom those voters actually voted. 

Until the polls close, it will remain an open question whether the surge in early voting represents a significant increase in Republican turnout or if voters simply chose to vote early instead of on Election Day.

State of the race

National and state polls have found that the presidential race is essentially tied, even as early voting data showed that Republicans turned out in numbers not seen before. 

RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows that Trump and Vice President Harris are tied at 48.5 percent. Meanwhile, the 45th president leads in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Ms. Harris holds narrow leads in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Data analytics from FiveThirtyEight’s model show Trump winning the election 52 times out of 100, while Ms. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. However, the statistical analysis site notes that just because polls show a razor-thin race, it does not mean the election’s outcome will be close.

Republicans are generally favored to win control of the Senate. The nonpartisan election forecaster, the Cook Political Report, predicts they could have a majority of up to 54 seats. Meanwhile, control of the House appears to be a toss-up. 

When the results will come in

The first polls will close in Kentucky and Indiana beginning at 6 p.m. eastern time. However, results from the more competitive states will not begin to trickle in until later in the evening. 

In Georgia, the polls close at 7 p.m. North Carolina and Ohio polling stations close at 7:30 p.m. At 8 p.m., the polls will close in 16 states, including the key state of Pennsylvania. At 8:30 p.m., polls will close in Arkansas.

At 9 p.m. ET, the polls will close in 15 states, including Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New  York, which could determine control of the House. At 10 p.m. eastern, the polls in Nevada, Montana, and Utah will close.

At 11 p.m. ET, the polls will close in California.

As the results are reported, the outcome may appear to be leaning heavily toward one party or the other as different forms of votes are counted. Some states report mail-in ballots first, which have historically skewed Democratic. Others report in-person Election Day votes, where Republicans tend to do better, first. 

For example, North Carolina is expected to report its mail-in ballots first, so it may appear Ms. Harris is in a strong position in the state. However, as the early in-person and election day votes — which data shows tend to skew Republican — that lead could be reversed. 

The same may happen in states such as Wisconsin, where smaller, more conservative municipalities will likely report votes first. Then, the larger, more Democratic-leaning areas will report their votes.  

Election officials have been trying to set expectations for Americans that the results likely will not be known Tuesday night due to the added time it takes to count mail-in ballots. However, several states have made changes to their voting counting procedures aimed at speeding up the process, so it may not take as long as it did in 2020 to find out who won. 

What the candidates are doing

The two candidates spent Monday making their final pitches to voters in key swing states. Trump kicked off the day in Raleigh, North Carolina, then traveled to Pennsylvania for rallies in Reading and Pittsburgh, and ended the evening in Grand Rapids, Michigan. 

Ms. Harris had several stops in Pennsylvania, including a rally at the Philadelphia Museum of Art with guests such as Lady Gaga and Oprah. 
Trump will be hosting an election night watch party in West Palm Beach, while Ms. Harris will have a watch party at Howard University.