Beware l’effetto Sardegna. Though it sounds like the title of an old Robert Ludlum paperback, the so-called “Sardinia effect” may be the harbinger of things to come — and a significant threat to the electoral supremacy of Italy’s center-right.

After Prime Minister Meloni’s hand-picked candidate for the presidency of Sardinia, Paolo Truzzu, lost by a whisker to Alessandra Todde of the left-leaning Movimento Cinque Stelle, the Italian press began chattering — chortling might be a better word — about a supposed Sardinia effect that could mark the beginning of the end of Signora Meloni’s conservative revolution.

Or not. Yes, the prime minister suffered her first-ever political defeat since acceding to the Palazzo Chigi.  However, this regional election was no landslide. While the loss highlighted continuing tensions between Signora Meloni and her deputy premier, Matteo Salvini, these politicos are still a fully functioning governmental duo.

Signore Salvini had agitated for the incumbent, Christian Solinas, of the Lega party, to run for a second term. Signora Meloni opted for Mr. Truzzu, the mayor of Cagliari and a member of her Fratelli d’Italia party. Hizzoner lost. Yet it bears noting that the results were close enough to contemplate a possible recount.

 Even so, it’s a good thing such a recount did not take place. Better to concentrate on the next battleground — the regional election taking place today in Abruzzo. 

“Am I afraid of the Sardinia effect in Abruzzo?” asks Signora Meloni, who voiced skepticism about such a phenomenon. Eschewing the doomsday scenario envisioned by Italy’s left-leaning commentariat, the prime minister adopted a confident tone: “Frankly, I’m quite optimistic.”

The head-to-head contest in the birthplace of the poet and adventurer Gabriele d’Annunzio pits the Gregory Peck-like Fratelli d’Italia candidate, Marco Marsilio, against the leftist independent Luciano D’Amico.

Signore Marsilio, who is the current president of the region, has a substantial record of achievement. He’s a pragmatically passionate governor who gets results for Abruzzo. 

Nevertheless, owing to the closeness of the Sardinian balloting, Signora Meloni said one should not discount the possibility of some sort of electoral chicanery or a dirty trick or two in the run-up to the European Parliamentary elections in June.

“Anything can happen up through the European elections,” said the prime minister. In other words, to echo Heraclitus: “Expect the unexpected.”

The Continent’s center-left is bracing for a right-wing tsunami in those contests — making Abruzzo a priority for the likes of Elly Schlein and the former premier, Giuseppe Conte.

Signore Conte, though, whose candidate defeated the center-right opponent in Sardinia, is hoping for back-to-back victories. Such a development would allow him to claim the leadership of an on-again-off-again fusion center-left alliance with Ms. Schlein.

“It had been since 2015 since we won a region where the right governed,” she crowed post-Sardinia.

The Five Star Movement’s Alessandra Todde, the newly elected president of the island, outlined the center-left’s strategy for national preeminence: “To succeed in creating a solid project that can convince the electorate,” an alliance of the Five Stars and the left-wing Partito Democratico “is the only way.”

If the left unifies, a victory in Abruzzo could trigger an electoral domino effect, spreading from region to region — and ultimately toppling Signora Meloni’s conservative government.

For all his fervor, though, Signore Conte was less jubilant, warning of a “center-right junta” with deep financial pockets. Shades of Hillary Clinton and that “vast right-wing conspiracy.”

Mud-slinging and name-calling are the sine qua non of most electoral campaigns. Thus far, Abruzzo has been lively. Even so, though they are not as ironclad — or as stubborn as facts — polls matter.

Federica Pascale reports in EURACTIV.it that, “the competition for the regional presidency appears to be extremely tight between the candidates in the race,” according to Winpoll.  Signore Marsilio has 50.4 percent of the vote while Luciano D’Amico has 49.6 percent, leaving out undecideds and those who don’t plan to vote. excluding the undecided and those who do not intend to vote.

Commenting on CorriereTV, Antonio Polito explained how Abruzzo, which he considers the Ohio of Italy, possesses a unique political duality. Whereas the mountainous interior traditionally votes for the right, the electorate in coastal Abruzzo is more volatile.

In order to achieve victory, the center-right coalition must hold the electoral line on the coast while garnering a solid vote count from the moderate Forza Italia — which acts as a counterbalance to the more incendiary Lega. That’s a formula for regional and national success.

The conservatives currently govern 14 of Italy’s 20 regions. Should the center-right lose Abruzzo, though, it could mark the beginning of a left-wing resurgence. That would mean a revival of instability, the return of revolving-door governments, and a lowering of Italy’s global profile. If the latest polls showing a tightening race are any indication, Signora Meloni should beware the Ides of Abruzzo.