Are Britain’s governing Conservatives on the brink . . . ? Either the Tory Government may be on the cusp of finalizing an agreement with the European Union over Northern Ireland. No less a possibility, however, absent an agreement that safeguards Northern Ireland’s sovereignty within the United Kingdom, is a further — fatal? — implosion of the world’s oldest political brand.

Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, “has been privately warned the Tories face electoral oblivion if he is accused of Brexit betrayal,” the London’s Sun reports, “amid claims his government even risks collapse.” This warning comes courtesy of the government’s undisclosed negotiations over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

“Up to 100 Tory MPs are set to rebel unless Mr Sunak restores Northern Ireland’s sovereignty,” declares the Daily Express. Doubtless Britons in the rest of the United Kingdom are wondering about their sovereignty, too, with 45,000 illegal immigrants crossing over the English Channel last year and an estimated 65,000 expected in 2023.

As for Northern Ireland, the cost of a Brexit trade agreement was shared UK-EU authority in matters of regulation, which in effect cedes control to the European Court of Justice. Local government has broken down as a result, with the Democratic Unionist Party withdrawing support against the jurisdiction of foreign judges and the “border in the Irish Sea.”

Ergo Mr. Sunak’s EU summitry at the weekend. Details are scarce, but rumors that success came at the expense of complete sovereignty now plague the Prime Minister’s announcement to Parliament.

According to a Downing Street spokesman, Mr. Sunak is intent on “safeguarding Northern Ireland’s place within the union, protecting the Belfast agreement in all its dimensions and ensuring the free flow of trade within the UK internal market.”

At present and without the benefit of a legal text, Democratic Unionists and Brexiteer backbenchers in Mr. Sunak’s own party, particularly the European Reform Group, fear none of these three red lines have been met to their satisfaction.

One prominent parliamentarian, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has likened Mr. Sunak’s predicament to the situation Theresa May faced when she was prime minister: presenting an agreement to parliament as a “fait accompli.”

“There seems to me to be no point in agreeing a deal that does not restore power-sharing” in the Stormont Assembly — which the DUP has boycotted since February 2021 — Mr. Rees-Mogg confessed. “I don’t know why so much political capital has been spent on something without getting the DUP and the ERG onside first.”

Were the European Court of Justice to maintain jurisdiction, “We would have to agree EU laws which diverge from UK laws, and in doing so would separate our own country from the rest of the UK,” one DUP politician declared. “We’re British, and we expect to be governed by UK law, not EU law.”

In this crisis for the prime minister, few are surprised that Boris Johnson sees an opportunity. He has stated that it would be a “great mistake” for Mr. Sunak to withdraw the Northern Ireland Protocol bill, currently making its way through Parliament.

The bill is a consequence of Article 16 of the Brexit trade agreement with the EU, which allows Westminster to act unilaterally if insurmountable problems arise within Northern Ireland. Tory Eurosceptics see the NIP bill as holding Brussels’ feet to the fire, in coming up with an agreement that satisfies Northern Ireland Unionists.

Mr. Johnson is rumored to be preparing an intervention that he will use to “springboard” his return to power. According to the Daily Express, though, even BoJo’s most dedicated supporters may be thinking twice.

A survey by Techne UK for the Daily Express found Mr. Sunak with 34 percent support versus 28 percent for Mr. Johnson. As for his fabled 2019 electoral victory, 45 percent now prefer Mr. Sunak, giving Mr. Johnson merely 37 percent support.

Still, Conservative MPs faced with political annihilation at the polls are rueing their revolt against BoJo in July last year. In their minds, he led them to a resounding 80-seat majority in December 2019. 

Whereas YouGov polling now has the governing Tories down a further 2 points from early February, to stand at 22 percent against Labour’s 50 percent, which is up 3 points.

Your Brexit Diarist maintains that the Tories’ best hope is to adhere to an agenda of “maximal liberty, minimal government.” Yet their actions belie their faith in freedom. Frustrations in Northern Ireland only serve to underline just how foreign is individual sovereignty to a Conservative government on the brink of ruin.

BrexitDiarist@gmail.com