Mustafa Kemal Atatürk he will never be, but the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has shown President Erdogan to be the shrewdest leader of Turkey in recent history.

The famously grouchy septuagenarian has leveraged Turkey’s position between Europe and Asia, and its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty, to maximum effect as change blows over its southern neighbor. He may not celebrate Christmas, but the gifts keep coming. 

What a contrast with Iran. As Turkey sparkles, Iran’s position dims even further. As for Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, the picture is a little grainier. Right now things in Syria are more in Polaroid mode, with the full picture of how things will settle at Damascus still developing. The early indications, though, are that the transitional government with Mohammed al-Bashir in the prime ministerial role and the Hayat Tahir al-Sham rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is striking a harmonious note.

The disintegration of Assad’s rule was hastened by the weakness of his armed forces and by the retreat of Russia and Iran. By now Turkey’s backstage role in the drama that led to the toppling of Assad is also well-known. Ankara never abandoned the Syrian opposition, even when Washington and other Western powers that initially supported the uprisings hesitated. Mr. Erdogan grasped that it would be a winning bet. 

During the long Syrian civil war, Turkey welcomed millions of refugees while providing weapons and training to rebel groups. Paradoxically, at the same time, until last year President Erdogan more or less supported Assad, too, even inviting him to holiday on the Turkish coast. 

One thing on which Erdogan pressed Assad was the return of millions of Syrian refugees. Assad resisted that prodding, but now that he’s safely in asylum in Moscow, Mr. Erdogan seems to finally be getting his wish. 

Curiously, as Le Figaro first reported, Assad had also rebuffed offers from the United Arab Emirates to assist with reconstruction efforts — while Assad was clinging to power, the Butcher of Damascus could not afford to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran. Consider that the wedge  is now gone, but it is Turkey that stands to benefit the most from the commercial advantages that obtain from such a vast reconstruction effort. 

That is the message beneath the mist emanating from Mr. Erdogan’s minister of foreign affairs, Hakan Fidan, who this week said that “a new era has begun in Syria, now it is necessary to focus on the future.” Turkey, he added, “has reached out to its Syrian brothers in difficult times, and will be with them on this new page that has been opened in Damascus.”

At the moment, Secretary Blinken is doing more of what he does best: getting on airplanes and having meetings that, even a cursory look at the record will show, have accomplished little, if anything. So a huge question for the presumptive next secretary of state, Senator Rubio, will be to what extent Turkey has control of the facts on the ground — and how much influence it can exert over Mr. al-Jolani. 
Mr. Rubio, a pragmatist, will likely recognize more clearly just how important Turkey is, as a member of NATO but only that. Thanks to its geostrategic position it can afford to confront Russia (as well as, to a degree, America and Israel) on matters pertaining not only to the Mediterranean but also the Caucasus.