Abortion-rights advocates are seeking to extend their winning streak with ballot measures aimed at amending state constitutions in several states next month. Their success so far, however, may be about to hit a bump in the road in America’s third most populous state.

Along with their choices of candidates for office up and down the ballot, voters in Florida will be asked to consider six amendments to the state constitution. One of those measures, Amendment 4, would allow abortion up to the point of viability and overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban, which is set to go into effect in May. 

The amendment would also let doctors perform an abortion if they believe the life of the woman is at risk at any point during the pregnancy. 

With just more than a month until Election Day, polls show the amendment appears to be headed for defeat, which could be the first time such a measure has lost since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. 

Florida-based polling firm Victory Insights found that less than 50 percent of voters are planning to vote for Amendment 4, which is below the 60 percent threshold needed for the initiative to pass.

Pollster Ben Galbraith noted in a polling memo that Amendment 4 is receiving less support than Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana. Still, he suggested abortion-rights proponents have some hope, pointing out that one in five voters say they are undecided on the matter, which could translate to the extra 10 percent needed for the amendment to pass.

The Victory Insights poll is not the only survey to find Amendment 4 failing to garner 60 percent support.

In August, a USA TODAY/Suffolk/WSVN-TV poll found that 58 percent of Florida voters said they support the initiative, with a margin of error of 4.4 percent. Meanwhile, a poll from Florida Atlantic University found that 56 percent of voters support the amendment, with a margin of error of 3 percent.

DeSantis’s Fight Against Amendment 4

The polls showing Amendment 4 appearing to be heading for defeat come as Governor DeSantis is waging a campaign against it. He has been a vocal opponent of the initiative, even pressuring Republicans in Congress to speak out against it.

Mr. DeSantis said in a video posted on social media the initiative “will mandate abortion up until the moment of birth.” He also asserted it is “written in a way that’s intentionally designed to deceive voters.”

The DeSantis administration also has launched an investigation into allegations of at least 36,000 fraudulent petition signatures that helped Amendment 4 make it onto the ballot. The Miami Herald reported that several residents who signed petitions for the initiative said they received visits from law enforcement asking if they actually signed the petition. 

Despite the concerns about potential fraud, Palm Beach County supervisor of elections Wendy Link told Axios in September that the allegedly fraudulent signatures cited by the DeSantis administration were rejected and not counted in the vote tally.

Seven Congressional Democrats penned a letter to Attorney General Garland asking the Justice Department to investigate the DeSantis administration for what they called “brazen attempts at voter intimidation and election interference on Amendment 4.”

The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, the state agency charged with regulating health providers, launched a website in September to warn residents about Amendment 4. The website states the initiative “threatens women’s safety” and insists it is telling Floridians the “truth” about the measure. 

A political committee that is supporting Amendment 4 sued the state, alleging it is engaging in a “misinformation” campaign funded by taxpayer dollars. 

Besides actions taken by the state government, Mr. DeSantis launched a political committee, the Florida Freedom Fund, in May to help fight the abortion and recreational marijuana amendments. 

A defeat of Amendment 4 in Florida would be a major upset in the two years since Roe was overturned.

Since 2022, six states have considered such measures. California, Michigan, Ohio, and Vermont approved ballot measures that protect abortion access. Meanwhile, Kentucky and Kansas rejected measures that would have limited abortion rights. 

Abortion on the Ballot Across America

This year, ten states, including Florida, are considering ballot measures involving abortion. 

A Fox News poll released in August found that more than 70 percent of voters in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada support the abortion amendments that will be on those state ballots in November, easily clearing the 50 percent threshold needed to pass. 

Meanwhile, an SLU/YouGov poll found the abortion rights amendment in Missouri received 52 percent support. Additionally, a poll co-sponsored by South Dakota News Watch found that 53 percent of voters support the abortion amendment in South Dakota. Both states have a 50 percent threshold for ballot initiatives to succeed. 

Voters in Montana will also consider an abortion amendment. Polling on that measure is scant. However, in 2022, voters there rejected a ballot measure that would have required healthcare employees to provide care to infants who survived an abortion or were born prematurely.

Nebraska voters will be asked to choose between an amendment that protects abortion rights and one that bans abortion after the second trimester. According to the Associated Press, voters could possibly approve both ballot measures. However, because they compete, the one that receives the most “for” votes will be adopted. 

Finally, the more liberal-leaning states of New York, Colorado, and Maryland also have amendments meant to further protect abortion access.