Fewer Americans Moved in 2022, but Those Who Did Favored Low-Tax Red States
America’s population center is veering southward during the first decades of the 21st century.
The brief flirtation with wanderlust that affected many Americans during the Covid pandemic appears to have subsided, according to a new report, but those who did move house in 2022 overwhelmingly chose low-tax red states over big-government blue states as their final destinations.
Economists at the National Association of Realtors, picking through Census and other data, report that 26 states saw a net gain in the number of residents — most of them in the South. The fastest-growing states were Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas; the states that saw the biggest declines in population were Illinois, New York, and California.
“Millions of people moved during the pandemic, driven by the opportunity to work remotely, the desire for more space, and better affordability,” the report says. The trend was short-lived, however, and “after a historically low moving rate in 2021, data indicates that even fewer Americans moved across the country last year.”
Of the states that did manage to attract internal migrants, Florida saw the largest influx. The state saw an annual increase in population of 1.9 percent, or nearly 319,000 new residents, marking the first time since 1957 that the state topped the list, while Texas’s population grew by 1.6 percent, South Carolina’s by 1.7 percent’ and North Carolina’s by 1.3 percent.
On the losing side, California saw the largest number of outbound migrants, losing more than 343,000 residents but still retaining the crown as the nation’s most populous state. New York lost nearly 300,000 residents, or 0.9 percent of its population, and Illinois lost nearly 142,000 residents, or 0.8 percent of its population. Massachusetts and New Jersey rounded out the bottom five on the list of losers.
Predictably, most of the metro areas that gained the most population also are in Sunbelt states where Covid lockdowns were relatively short-lived and the job market bounced back quicker and stronger than in the industrialized North and Midwest. The job market recovery was typically twice as fast in these cities compared to the national average.
Losing cities followed the pattern set by losing states. Residents of New York City, San Francisco, and Chicago continued to flee those cities in 2022. “Although more people are returning to these areas as employers demand a return to the office, outbound still outpace inbound moves in these large areas,” the economists said. A desire for more affordable housing was cited as one of the primary motivations of those who left the big cities.
Another thing the losing states and cities have in common is higher taxes compared to the states that saw population increases. According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, New York state has the highest state and local tax burden in the country — 15.9 percent — and New York City is the city with the highest tax burden in the nation. California, which soaks up some 13.5 percent of its residents’ income with state and local taxes, is the second-worst in the country, and Illinois is the sixth most burdensome state.
The realtors’ data would seem to confirm reporting from the Census last month that America’s population center veered southward during the first decades of the 21st century and that the South outgrew other regions of the country by 1.3 million people in 2022.
The Northeast and Midwest lost residents, and the West would have lost residents for the first time if not for foreign-born immigrants and high birth rates in the state. Six of the 10 American states with the biggest growth last year were in the South, led in order by Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, according to the Census Bureau.