The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, would be “shocked” if the fallen FTX mogul, Sam Bankman-Fried, fails to receive a pardon from President Biden — but the shifting politics of crypto could mean clemency would be more likely from President Trump.

Mr. Musk on Monday on X responded to speculation from an account called Wall Street Mav, which boasts a million and a half followers. Wall Street Mav speculated: “Guess who might get an early pardon from President Biden. The #2 largest donor to the Democrats. …” Those words were the caption for a computer-generated picture of Mr. Biden and Bankman-Fried.

The SpaceX and Tesla chief annotated that post with his reflection that he would “be shocked if this doesn’t happen.” Bankman-Fried in May was convicted of seven fraud and conspiracy charges relating to the collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, and an associated investment entity, Alameda Research. Judge Lewis Kaplan sentenced him to 25 years in prison, without the possibility of parole. 

Bankman-Fried has appealed that verdict. He insists that Judge Kaplan violated his due process rights during the trial by, among other decisions, preventing him from adducing expert testimony and allowing prosecutors to interrogate him out of earshot of the jury. His team has asked for a new trial with a new judge and contends that he “was never presumed innocent. He was presumed guilty — before he was even charged.”

Bankman-Fried was convicted in federal court. The Constitution ordains that the president “shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States,” which courts have interpreted to mean federal cases. The Supreme Court in Trump v. United States determined that the pardon power is so core to presidential prerogative that it enjoys “absolute” immunity. 

Alexander Hamilton writes in 74 Federalist that “the benign prerogative of pardoning should be as little as possible fettered or embarrassed.” Last month Mr. Biden issued an expansive pardon to his son Hunter, who was convicted of lying on a gun form and charged with tax evasion. The president also commuted the sentences of 37 death row prisoners.

Could a pardon for Bankman-Fried be next? An online betting market, Polymarket, raised the odds to 13 percent from 4 percent following Mr. Musk’s post to X, the platform he owns. The value of Bankman-Fried’s FTT token, which was issued by FTX, also surged following Mr. Musk’s speculation. 

Prosecutors alleged at trial that Bankman-Fried illicitly funneled customer funds to make more than $100 million in political campaign contributions before the 2022 midterm elections.  Public records disclose that Bankman-Fried and FTX gave millions of dollars to Democrats, but in November 2022 he shared that “all my Republican donations were dark” because “reporters freak the f— out if you donate to a Republican, because they’re all super liberal.” He estimated that he was the “second or third largest” donor to Republicans during that electoral cycle.

Bankman-Fried has also supported Mr. Biden directly. In 2020 he donated more than $5 million to the president’s campaign. Only Mayor Bloomberg, at $56 million, gave more. Bankman-Fried also gave to a political action committee called Future Forward that spent more than $100 million on television advertisements that helped make Mr. Biden the 46th president.

Now, though, it is the incoming administration rather than the departing one that appears to be positioning itself as an ally of a global crypto market that has surged past $3 trillion. Trump’s choice for chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins, said on a podcast last year: “The collapse of FTX was this international debacle that happened because … the U.S. didn’t make our rules accommodating.”

The prices of cryptocurrency have surged since Trump’s victory, and the president-elect has vowed to make America “the crypto capital of the planet,” even though he once called cryptocurrency a “scam.” The journalist Michael Lewis reported last year that before Bankman-Fried’s empire collapsed, he considered paying Trump $5 billion not to run for president this cycle. A spokesman for the Trump campaign issued a statement denying those allegations.

Mr. Musk and Bankman-Fried have crossed paths before. The FTX founder was reportedly mulling investing billions of dollars to help the Tesla chief executive buy Twitter, though that collaboration fell through. One text message to Bankman-Fried from Mr. Musk that was disclosed in court filings reads simply “Sorry, who is sending this message?”