With Germany’s ruling coalition thrown into disarray following the chancellor’s decision to sack his finance minister, Christian Lindner, the question at the German capital now is, will Herr Scholz keep his grip on power?

Given the chancellor’s deep unpopularity, the tentative answer to that question, for the time being at least, would appear to be a no. Yet who will take over and what the future coalition will look like is far from decided.

The public split came after weeks of wrangling between Herr Linder, a pro-business Free Democrat, and his coalition partners, the Greens and center-left Social Democrats, over how to fund future projects.

Germany’s self-imposed debt brake, which strictly limits surplus government spending, proved a severe bone of contention. 

While the chancellor wanted to boost spending by taking on debt, the finance minister advocated for slashes to social spending and tax cuts to free up funds. Ultimately, Herr Scholz found this untenable.

For now, Herr Scholz rules as a de facto minority leader. However, how long he can maintain cohesion between the Greens and his own Social Democrats remains to be seen.

Germany’s next federal elections are scheduled for the fall of next year but will likely be moved forward to spring, in April or May, following a vote of confidence.

Scholz indicated a desire to hold the confidence vote in mid-January. However, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democrats currently in opposition, said he would like to see the vote held possibly as early as next week.

There are several horses in the race for the chancellory jockeying for position. But Herr Merz is widely seen as one of the strongest contenders to be the next German leader.

Parliamentarian Roderich Kiesewetter, a Christian Democrat, tells the Sun that “the end of the… government was overdue, because we have wasted three years adapting Germany’s security policy to the urgent geopolitical changes.”

He added that he is “very confident that Friedrich Merz will become the new Federal Chancellor.”

Forging a broad alliance between parties as ideologically diverse as the Greens, Social Democrats, and Free Democrats proved how tenuous the links that held them together were. Future coalition building could be complex.

The coalition “did not fail because of the Free Democrats alone, but because there was no common basis for a government alliance [between the parties] from the start,” Herr Merz said today, underlining coalition difficulties.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced a political rethink, bringing together parties that previously shared little common ground. But, Herr Kiesewetter called the Greens “very credible” regarding German and greater European security.

He added that cooperation in a coalition with the chancellor’s Social Democrats would be “difficult” due to what he views as their lackluster track record in reorienting Germany’s security policy to face the challenge posed by Russia.

His party should “try to become strong enough to choose a partner among the democratic parties of the center,” he said, a tacit exclusion of negotiations with Germany’s hard-right and hard-left parties.

However, the recent success enjoyed by parties on the extreme ends of the political spectrum in state elections earlier this summer bode ill for the German political establishment, the upcoming federal elections, and any coalition negotiations.

Irrespective of when the elections are held, the inroads made by the Alternative for Germany on the right and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (known as BSW) on the left have upset the political calculus in a country that, until recently, favored continuity.

Founded in 2013 as a Euro-sceptic party, the AfD enjoyed a surge in state elections in former East Germany in August, widely seen as a reflection of deep voter dissatisfaction with the Scholz-led coalition.

Regardless of who is in the next governing constellation, Germany’s main political parties have repeatedly avowed forming a coalition with Germany’s farthest right party, the Alternative for Germany, known by its German acronym, AfD.

The party lost a legal battle this summer when a court sided with Germany’s domestic intelligence, upholding the party’s categorization as a “suspicious entity” by the Office of the Protection of the Constitution.

AfD has elected members in all of Germany’s 16 state legislatures, as well as in the Bundestag and the European Parliament. The court’s decision marked the first time a party with such a broad reach could be placed under surveillance. 

The upstart BSW party, a left-wing ideological mish-mash of economic socialism and social conservatism, also notched between 11.8 percent and 15.8 percent in three state elections this summer — a remarkable feat for a party only 10 months old.

BSW garnered both notoriety and sharp criticism when their lawmakers boycotted Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address at the Bundestag in June, citing what they saw as an increased risk of escalating the war in Ukraine.

Germany is the number two supporter of Ukraine behind the United States, and squaring BSW’s anti-war stance with that of the other parties would be an ambitious task.

“The question of how the next federal government will be composed is open,” spokeswoman for security policy for the Greens and Bundestag member Sara Nanni tells the Sun. 

“We have seen in the past that democracies are under great pressure and that this can lead to strong fluctuations in the party preferences of citizens,” she added, a nod to the recent success of BSW and AfD.

Domestic negotiations are just the first hurdle the next coalition will face, fellow and project manager at the Democratic Strategy Initiative, a think tank at Berlin, Aaron Gasch Burnett, tells the Sun.

With European capitals still reeling from the recent victory by president-elect Donald Trump, “the second negotiation would be with a Trump administration that has an uncertain commitment to Ukraine, Europe, and NATO.”

Which parties ultimately form Germany’s next ruling coalition is an open question, but a return to a business-as-usual Christian Democrat-led government seems increasingly likely. 

The question now is, what will happen to Scholz’s Social Democrats in the next coalition? There is a possibility of reaching an agreement with their partners for a future government.

If their partner’s satisfaction with their track record during their last three years is any indication, though, they may well find themselves an opposition party.