Came Friday noon, Charles III “kissed hands” with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and asked him to form His Majesty’s Government. Prime Minister Sunak gave his last address outside 10 Downing Street, and entered the history books as having led the Conservative Party to its worst defeat in history.

The outcome of the election, with Labour in and the Conservatives out, might come as little surprise, but the real story is how the parties shake-out — it’s about the fall of the Tories and the rise of Reform UK. The other big news could turn out to be the breakthrough made by Nigel Farage and Reform UK. 

The upstart party on the right came out of nowhere, to win five seats at Westminster. Much is being made of the list of political “big beasts” who fell to their political opponents — much like the Michael Portillo moment of 1997, when the once and future top of the Tories failed to gain re-election. 

Among the Tory big beasts who will not be returning to Westminster are the former premier, Liz Truss, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Baker, Liam Fox, Michael Fabricant, Johnny Mercer, and Grant Shapps — among several other Cabinet ministers.

Though Premier Sunak’s own seat had been in some doubt, he returns to Parliament with a comfortable margin of victory — as one failed Canadian prime minister’s wife once remarked, adding insult to injury.

Nevertheless, he will resign as Conservative chief once formal arrangements for selecting his successor are in place — thus plunging the party into its third leadership contest in two years.

His replacement will depend on those Tory MPs returned to Parliament. As the party rules go, MPs will choose two candidates among their number. Then the selection goes to the party membership, who will choose their next leader — though, given the depth of defeat, beware of an emergency set of conditions.

Prominent among the potential leadership contenders are Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Mark Francois, and Robert Jenrick. The former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, had stated that he would not be running again to lead his party, but that was well before the election campaign. As we have seen, 24 hours is a long time in politics.

Which brings me back to Reform. With both the Labour win and the Conservative loss largely choreographed well before the election was called, the rise of Reform stands apart.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Reform wrestled votes not only from disgruntled Tory supporters, but from Labourites as well. Mr. Farage appeals to the average Briton who feels hard done by the traditional party system.

Reform will now be called upon to show “the mettle of their pasture.”  With the Tories preoccupied with recriminations and one more leadership contest, Mr. Farage and his band have an opportunity to attract the limelight as an effective opposition — and chart the course to further success in five years’ time.

One piece of good news for supporters of the Conservative and Unionist Party comes out of Scotland. When the Scots Nats rode high in the polls, the separatist party had argued that any election was in fact a vote for independence. By that same logic, this vote is an unmistakable endorsement for union.

On election night, it would not have been surprising to hear defeated Tories echo H.L. Mencken: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want,” he declared, “and deserve to get it good and hard.”

Many Conservatives reserve such ill-will for Mr. Farage and Reform. Yet truthful Tories among them will realize that the fault for Conservatives’ wipeout at the polls lay not with Reform but with themselves.

With an unrepentant leftist party now in power, the fear is that Brexiteers will indeed get their deserts, however just or not. So the task at hand for the parties of the right must be to find some way of reconciliation — and to associate without acrimony to be the all-important bulwark against the State. 

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