Could Kremlin Pressure on Kazakhstan Lead to Hostilities?

Whether anti-Russian activity is transpiring in Kazakhstan is perhaps less relevant than the Russian pronouncement that there is.

Kazakhstan's Presidential Press Service via AP
Kazakhstan's president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at a polling station at Nur-Sultan June 5, 2022. Kazakhstan's Presidential Press Service via AP

Quietly but consistently, the Kremlin is exerting pressure on Kazakhstan in a way that, in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, could foreshadow trouble for the world’s largest landlocked country. In particular, Vladimir Putin’s displeasure with certain less than adulatory attitudes from the Kazakh capital, Nur-Sultan, has been a feature of relations between Russia and the former Soviet republic for years and has lately intensified. 

The latest verbal sparks flew last week at Minsk, where at a meeting of former Soviet Union public prosecutors Russia’s current prosecutor general, Igor Krasnov, said, “I am regularly informed that with the support of Ukrainian non-governmental organizations, active Russophobic activity is also unfolding in Kazakhstan.” 

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