New data on swing state voters suggest that while President Trump is betting on a clean win in the Republican primary, he’s set to struggle with both Republican and Democratic voters in the general election because of his legal battles.

53 percent of voters in seven closely watched battleground states would be “unwilling” to vote for Mr. Trump in the general election, according to a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. That figure grows to 55 percent if the former president is sentenced to prison.

A federal conviction is one of the few obstacles that could get in the way of Mr. Trump’s otherwise growing margin over President Biden in a head-to-head race. The 91 criminal charges against him in four separate indictments and related court appearances have so far bolstered his support from Republican voters, but that might only get him so far. 

Even Americans who once voted for Mr. Trump are questioning doing so again if he’s found guilty before November. 23 percent of swing-state Republicans say they are unwilling to support him if he is convicted, a number which becomes 20 percent for voters who supported him in 2020 and 25 percent for those who supported him in 2016. 

Conducted last week, the poll is of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — states that are poised to determine the results of the 2024 presidential election. 

The outlook for Mr. Biden, however, is equally grim. He lags behind Mr. Trump by an average of 6 percentage points in those seven swing states, according to the poll, with six in ten swing-state voters saying he bears responsibility for a surge in migrants at the Southern border. Data from Gallup disclose that his approval numbers have been below 50 percent since August of 2021.