California voters appear poised to pass a ballot initiative that would increase the penalties for drug trafficking and theft crimes, even as the state’s governor is urging residents to vote against it.

The initiative, Proposition 36, would reverse the reduction in sentencing for various crimes implemented ten years ago with the passage of Proposition 47. 

If the current ballot measure passes, it will allow felony charges to be brought against someone convicted at least twice of theft of items worth less than $950 or someone on their third offense of a drug-related crime. Currently, those offenses are classified as misdemeanors.

Proposition 36 increases the sentence length for several crimes. It adds fentanyl to a list of drugs, such as cocaine and heroin, that could lead to a felony if an individual is found to be in possession of a firearm and one of those drugs. If convicted, an individual could face up to four years in prison, as opposed to one year under the current policy. The measure creates an alternative where repeat drug offenders can receive treatment and have their charges dismissed if they complete the process. 

The initiative would also increase the sentencing for individuals on at least their second theft conviction to up to three years in prison instead of the current sentence of up to six months. 

After California saw a surge of “smash-and-grab” crimes in recent years, voters seem ready to enact new, harsher penalties to deter such crime, even amid predictions from the legislative analyst’s office that the initiative could cost hundreds of millions a year. 

A poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by Los Angeles Times, released on Friday found that 60 percent of California residents plan to vote for the measure, while 21 percent say they will vote no. Eighty-three percent of Republicans, 47 percent of Democrats, and 58 percent of independents plan to vote for it. 

Proposition 36 receives a majority of support among white, Latino, and Asian American voters. However, only 37 percent of Black voters say they support it. 

A poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, released in September, found 71 percent of residents said they plan to vote for the measure. 

Supporters of Proposition 36 say it will help make the state safer by cracking down on repeat offenders while also encouraging treatment for people addicted to drugs.

However, opponents of the measure argue it will lead to more crime and homelessness. Activists opposed to the initiative met on Tuesday to discuss its potential effects. Organizing director at Los Angeles Community Action Network, Lex Steppling, said during the meeting, “Nothing causes mental health issues more than a sense of financial and economic stress…more than jail.”

“Proposition 36 is here to try to manipulate people to be mad at the wrong people for the wrong reasons,” he added.

Meanwhile, a community organizer with Stop LAPD Spying, Matyos Kidane, claimed support for the measure is the result of “the fabrication of narratives around organized retail theft,” and major retail companies helping it get on the ballot.

Earlier this year, major retail companies like Target, Walmart, and Home Depot donated millions to help get the measure on the ballot. And last month, Walmart donated an additional $1 million to support the Yes campaign. 

Despite the widespread support for Proposition 36, Democrats in the state and Governor Newsom have made several attempts to prove they are tough on crime and kill the momentum for the measure.

Mr. Newsom initially tried to get a competing initiative on the ballot in November, which he claimed Proposition 36 “would revive policies from the era of mass inceration and the failed War on Drugs.” 

However, he abruptly pulled the measure over the summer because leaders were “unable to meet the ballot deadline to secure necessary amendments to ensure this measure’s success.”

Mr. Newsom tried again to blunt the support for Proposition 36 in August when he signed a bipartisan package of ten bills into law that targeted smash-and-grab robberies, property crimes, auto thefts, and repeat shoplifters. The package lets law enforcement tally up the cost of stolen goods to hit thieves with a harsher penalty. Law enforcement can also use video clips and witness statements to arrest individuals accused of shoplifting. 

Even though he opposes Proposition 36, Mr. Newsom told reporters in September that he does not have the “bandwidth” to campaign against it because he is working to help Vice President Harris win the presidency.

“I just pray, I really do, that people take a good look at Proposition 36,” he said.

Mr. Newsom added he was left “wondering what state I was living in” after he saw the Public Policy Institute poll that found 71 percent of residents support the measure, which he called a “real setback.”