Is the Biden administration attempting to capitalize on the chaos at America’s southern border to gain leverage for pushing through an amnesty bill in the new Congress? 

That is the suggestion from an Axios report today that says the White House “is plotting to make a fresh push on immigration reform in the new year,” in part due to the “situation at the border.”

The White House strategy is based on the prospect that “up to 14,000 migrants” will cross the border every day if Title 42 ends, representing a “humanitarian emergency” that offers an opening toward a solution to a “long-term political dilemma.”

To that end, President Biden’s commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, is offering an economic argument for letting more migrants in. “Immigration reform,” she says, is “so clearly necessary in light of what we’re seeing in the job market.”

Pinning American inflation on a “tight labor market,” she contends “immigration is a lever,” and “we’re down a million immigrants a year. That’s a workforce that we need.”

Demand for labor is one reason for the record numbers of migrants crossing the southern border. These numbers are expected to increase if the Trump-era policy known as Title 42, which allows the expulsion of asylum seekers at America’s southern border, is lifted, as the Biden administration seeks to do.  

The fate of the policy is in the hands of the Supreme Court, which on Monday temporarily halted the White House effort to bring it to a halt. The order came in response to an emergency request by 19 Republican-led states to keep the policy in place amid the record numbers of migrants crossing the border. 

Meanwhile, in Congress there are legislative efforts to bring more immigrants into the legal workforce.

Shortly after the midterm elections, Senator Schumer announced that Democrats were working on legislation that would normalize the citizenship status of immigrants who qualified for the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, known as “Dreamers.” The program allows hundreds of thousands of qualified undocumented immigrants to receive work permits and protection from deportation by immigration authorities. 

Earlier this month, Senators Sinema and Tillis outlined a proposal that would provide 2 million undocumented migrants who were brought into the country before the age of 16 a path to citizenship in exchange for allocating $25 billion for border security.

To date, border patrol officials have encountered nearly 2.8 million migrants in 2022. That represents a 41 percent increase from last year, according to American Customs and Border Protection. 

Mr. Biden has sought to end Title 42 by December 27. In a submission filed to the Supreme Court, his administration “recognizes” that the lifting of Title 42 will “likely lead to disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings,” but the administration believes that the policy has “outlived its public-health justification” and cannot be used as a solution to the country’s immigration problem.

A retired Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent who frequents the southern border, Victor Avila, told the Sun that all states in America are being affected by the surge of migrants at the southern border. Under Mr. Biden’s “Catch and Release” policy, Mr. Avila says, the healthcare, education, and criminal justice systems of most states have been affected. 

“Every state is a border state,” Mr. Avila said. “If it’s unsustainable now, I can’t imagine the challenges after Title 42 is lifted.”

If Title 42 is ended, the Department of Homeland Security expects a 36 percent increase in migrant encounters on top of the record numbers it is experiencing now, an official at the department told the Sun. The official, who is not unauthorized to speak to the press, spoke on the condition of anonymity. 

Since 2020, Border Patrol officials have expelled 2.4 million migrants attempting to enter the country under Title 42.

At the moment, border officials are encountering more than 8,000 migrants a day at the Mexican border, the DHS official said. That is far more than the 6,000 encounters typically seen during a normal peak season. If Title 42 is removed, the official said, “we’re thinking closer to the lines of 12,000 encounters a day.”

After the Supreme Court’s order was issued on Monday, Governor Abbott sent the National Guard to block migrants from crossing into his state. According to the Texas National Guard, they are placing “barriers as needed to funnel migrants to the designated points of entry” and “prevent” illegal crossings into Texas. 

“While Biden abandons his duty to defend America, Texas is taking unprecedented action to decrease the influx of dangerous criminals, illegal weapons, & deadly drugs into the U.S.,” Mr. Abbott tweeted earlier this week.

Although Mr. Biden may attempt to use the current border crisis as leverage to strike a compromise with Congress, House Republicans might have other priorities. Earlier this month, the House Republican leader, Congressman Kevin McCarthy, said that his party’s main goal is to investigate the Homeland Security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, over his management of the border crisis. 

In addition, there are doubts about House Republicans’ willingness to compromise on an immigration deal. In 2018, the House was unable to pass a compromise Republican-led immigration bill, which would have provided $25 billion in border security in exchange for a path to citizenship for Dreamers.