In what may be President Biden’s final attempt to influence Mideast events before the November election, he has sent Secretary Blinken to the region, hoping to promote a Gaza cease-fire, a new pact for Lebanon, and, most crucially, to mute Israeli retaliation against Iran. 

The Biden administration is desperately trying to limit the scope of expected Israeli strikes against Tehran, which could trigger a counter-attack that might quickly ignite a widened war between Israel and the Islamic Republic. Democrats fear an all-out war could erupt before voting ends on November 5.

Jeruslaem is leery of sharing with Washington its plans on Iran, following a leak of a Pentagon report on movements of Israeli military assets. After the Pentagon distributed to Western allies the highly classified report on Israel’s military preparations for an Iran attack, details from the report popped up in a pro-Iranian Telegram account, Middle East Spectator.

Mr. Biden said he was “deeply concerned” about the leak, and the FBI launched an investigation. Yet, the incident is bound to further limit his administration’s already weakened influence in its waning days. As Mr. Blinken attempts to tame Israel’s retaliation against  Iran, Jerusalem officials seemingly are signaling that the Islamic Republic will pay a heavy price.          

Soon after Mr. Blinken met Prime Minister Netanyahu at Jerusalem on Tuesday, the premier convened his cabinet to discuss military retaliation for the unprecedented attack Iran launched at Israel on October 1 that included 200 ballistic missiles. Mr. Blinken also met with the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who previously vowed a “surprising” and “lethal” counter-attack. 

As Mr. Blinken convened with the premier for a three-hour session, Israeli officials published new details on Saturday’s three-drone attack from Lebanon that targeted Mr. Netnayahu’s private home at the seaside town of Caesarea. 

An image showing a cracked window in the bedroom Mr. Netayahu shares with his wife, Sarah, which was previously censored by the Israel Defense Force, was published by the Israeli government. The window, reportedly constructed of reinforced glass for security reasons, was not penetrated. The couple was spending time elsewhere when the attack occurred.

A Hezbollah spokesman, Mohamed Afif, on Monday took sole responsibility for the drone attack, saying it was retaliation for Israel’s killing of the organization’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah. Yet a Saudi news channel, al Hadath, reported that officials in the Iranian embassy at Beirut were involved in planning the attack. 

“The Iranians are responsible, and the drone attack will enter our calculations” on how to respond to the October 1 missile attack, an unidentified Israeli official told Kan television. Targeting the Israeli head of state affords “additional legitimacy to what the IDF is planning,” a military analyst on Channel 12 television, Nir Dvori, added.  

Prior to October 7, 2023, the Biden administration attempted unsuccessfully to widen Mideast alliances by adding Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords signatories that had previously established diplomatic relations with Israel. 

The Saudis and other Gulf countries are now widely reported to be quietly encouraging Israel to toughen its expected attack on Iran — even as Tehran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is touring Mideast capitals to deter military cooperation with Israel.

During 10 previous Mideast trips since last October’s Hamas atrocities, Mr. Blinken has consistently attempted to tame Israel’s military response. With Mr. Biden increasingly seen as a lame duck, Israel seems to be ignoring American advice. In the last few weeks it scored major military successes in decapitating the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership. 

On Tuesday Mr. Blinken said that the elimination of Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, presents an opportunity to chart “a new path forward” that “allows Palestinians to rebuild their lives and provides governance, security and reconstruction for Gaza.”

The secretary is reportedly hoping to reach a deal that would end the Gaza war, release the 101 hostages held in the Strip, and start preparations for the “day after” there. Allied countries like the United Arab Emirates hint they are ready to invest in the rehabilitation of Gaza.

Yet, Israel says its military actions will persist until all hostages return and southern communities are secured against future Gaza attacks. Similarly, Israel vows to maintain attacks on Hezbollah until 70,000 evacuated northern Israelis can return home. 

A White House special envoy, Amos Hochstein, was at Beirut Tuesday to relay Israeli conditions to end the war in Lebanon. Those reportedly include a demand to allow the IDF freedom of movement in southern Lebanon even after a cease-fire deal is reached, so it can ensure Hezbollah is unable to reinstate its positions there. 

Much to Mr. Blinken’s chagrin, diplomatic progress in Gaza and Lebanon is unlikely before Israel feels it has sufficiently grinded down the military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah. Similarly, his 11th trip to the region is unlikely to weigh heavily in Israel’s calculations as it prepares to hit Iran.