In one of the last major climate initiatives it will take, the Biden administration is approving California’s ban on gas-powered vehicles. 

On Wednesday, the Environmental Protection Agency gave the green light for California to implement its mandated phase-out of the sale of gas-powered vehicles.

The controversial plan requires 35 percent of all new cars to be electric by 2026. The requirement increases to 68 percent in the year 2030. By 2035, 100 percent of new vehicles sold in the state will have to be zero-emission vehicles.

In a statement, the EPA administrator, Michael Regan, noted California has the authority to seek waivers from the agency to “protect its residents from dangerous air pollution coming from mobile sources like cars and trucks.

“Today’s actions follow through on the EPA’s commitment to partner with states to reduce emissions and act on the threat of climate change,” Mr. Regan said.

The Clean Air Act gave the EPA the authority to establish a national standard for vehicle emissions for states to follow. However, California was given the ability to apply for waivers from the federal government to set even stricter standards. Other states do not have the ability to apply for waivers and have to decide whether to follow the federal standards or California’s stricter standards. Twelve states and Washington, D.C., have agreed to follow California’s EV standard, although they do require the gas-powered phase-out to start until 2027. 

In 2019, President-elect Trump revoked California’s authority to create its own emissions standards. However, President Biden restored it in 2022, and that same year, California’s regulators approved the new electric vehicle mandate. 

The mandate could have a major impact on the auto industry and manufacturers’ outlook for EVs if it stands. California alone accounts for roughly 11 percent of the vehicle market in America. If the other states followed suit, automotive manufacturers would likely have to prepare to dramatically overhaul their inventories to comply with the mandates.

Governor Newsom celebrated the Biden administration’s decision to approve the emissions standard, saying, “Naysayers like President-elect Trump would prefer to side with the oil industry over consumers and American automakers, but California will continue fostering new innovations in the market.”

A major automobile industry lobbying group, the Alliance for Automatic Innovation, says the mandate will “force automakers to sell fewer vehicles in California… increase prices and depress economic activity and tax revenue.”

The group’s chief executive, John Bozzella, said in a statement, “Achieving the EV sales mandates under current market realities will take a miracle. There needs to be balance, and some states should exit the (California) program.”

“Automakers are producing electric vehicles… but there’s a huge gap between these EV sales mandates and a customer’s reasonable expectation they can still choose what kind of vehicle to drive,” he added.

The liberal excitement over the mandate may be short-lived. Trump has vowed to repeal what he called electric vehicle mandates. He could once again revoke California’s approval to set its own standards, which would end the gas-powered vehicle ban. However, the administrative process required to revoke the authorization could take months, and California could also challenge the move in court. 

Trump’s team is developing a list of policies for the soon-to-be 47th president rollback to target the so-called EV mandate, such as a $7,500 tax credit for EV purchases, stricter emissions and fuel-economy standards, and California’s authority to implement its own emissions standards.

Even if the incoming administration was not expected to reverse the mandate, there are questions about whether automakers would be able to comply with it. Demand for EVs has fallen despite the Biden administration’s push to shift away from gas-powered vehicles. A June 2024 survey from the consulting firm McKinsey found that roughly half of Americans who purchased an electric vehicle said they plan to return to gas-powered cars.

Automakers have also warned the mandate is not feasible due to a lack of demand. In November, the chief operating officer of Toyota Motor North America, Jack Hollis, said during a roundtable, “I have not seen a forecast by anyone … government or private, anywhere that has told us that that number is achievable. At this point, it looks impossible.”

“Demand isn’t there. It’s going to limit a customer’s choice of the vehicles they want,” he added. 

Vehicle manufacturers have been scaling back their production of EVs, while others have decided to offer more hybrids instead of all-electric options. 

In California, demand for EVs is not where it needs to be to meet the requirement that 35 percent of new vehicles sold in 2026 are zero-emission. In 2024, 26.4 percent of new vehicles sold have been zero-emission cars, which means EV sales would have to surge by 33 percent to hit the 2026 requirement. 

As it appears unlikely that California will meet its own standards, the California Air Resources Board, which is tasked with enforcing the mandate, says the requirements are more of an “ideal.”

A spokesman for the board, Dave Clegern, told the Los Angeles Times, “We never expected a perfectly shaped curve over time. The 35 percent [in 2026] is an ideal number.”