As speculation over Senator Manchin’s potential impact as a third party candidate for president swirls, a new survey on the West Virginia Senate race suggests a decision to run for re-election would likely spell defeat for the conservative Democrat. 

A survey from East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research found that, if the 2024 Senate election were held today, Mr. Manchin would lose to his likely opponent, Governor Justice.

Mr. Justice would win by 22 points, according to the survey, carrying 54 percent of the vote to Mr. Manchin’s 32 percent. These results are consistent with the poll’s findings in regards to Mr. Justice’s approval rating, which was 57 percent, compared to a 29 percent disapproval rating.

Mr. Manchin’s approval rating, by comparison, was the mirror image of Mr. Justice’s, with 33 percent of respondents approving of his performance, compared to 59 percent who disapproved. 

“Although it is still early, Jim Justice is the clear favorite to win in West Virginia’s 2024 U.S. Senate election,” the director of the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research, Peter Francia said. “He is a popular Republican governor challenging an unpopular Democratic incumbent in a heavily Republican state.”

The poll’s findings were well outside the survey’s margin of error, which was plus or minus 3.7 points. The poll had 957 respondents, all of whom were registered voters. 

The poll also confirmed that Mr. Justice is still leading in the Republican primary, despite attacks from Congressman Alex Mooney, who is also running for Senate and hoping to win the Republican nomination.

The poll found that Mr. Justice currently leads Mr. Mooney by 41 points, 53 percent to 12 percent, among potential Republican primary voters.

The survey comes as speculation swirls concerning whether or not Mr. Manchin will choose to run for re-election to the Senate, or whether he may choose to run as an independent candidate for president, as he has teased by visiting early primary states like Iowa.

Mr. Manchin also seems to have the backing of a well funded non-partisan political group, No Labels, which has said it is trying to ensure America has a viable candidate for president in the event of a rematch between President Biden and President Trump in 2024.

Mr. Manchin has also promised to win any race that he chooses to enter, however, as it stands now he doesn’t appear to have a clear path to victory in either the Senate race or the presidential race.