Turkey’s ruler for the last 20 years, President Erdogan, is aiming to stay in power until at least the quarter-century mark by winning next month’s election. For America, such a victory would be bad news.   

Increasingly more imperial than democratic, Mr. Erdogan is in a tough political fight. As the May 14 parliamentary and presidential elections near, polls show him slightly behind a Western-leaning candidate who heads a united anti-Erdogan opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.   

Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has been edging ever closer to America’s global competitors at Moscow and Beijing, even though it is a member of NATO. Most recently, much to Washington’s chagrin, Mr. Erdogan blocked Sweden’s request to join the alliance. 

The Biden administration is “exhausted with Erdogan, but for them, the opposition is an unknown entity,” the Brookings Institute’s Asli Aydintasbas tells the Sun. The administration is therefore “sitting out” the Turkish election. Now, though, America is making “a gesture to Erdogan in case he wins,” she adds.

As Reuters reports Thursday, the White House is set to approve a modernization package for Turkey’s F-16 fighter jets — a move that has been hotly debated in Washington in light of Mr. Erdogan’s tightening military relations with Moscow. 

“I’m stunned,” a Turkey watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Sinan Ciddi, tells the Sun. The administration, he says, fears “antagonizing the beast” by overtly campaigning against Mr. Erdogan, which could heighten anti-American feelings in Turkey. 

Yet, Mr. Ciddi adds, “some at the state department still think they can work with Erdogan — that if he is re-elected he will hit the reset button” on Ankara’s relations with America and the West.

Such a reset could prove quite tricky, as in return for acts like ending his opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership Mr. Erdogan is bound to demand a lot of Washington, where he is far from popular. 

The president’s re-election is far from assured. “There’s no doubt that people want change,” Ms. Aydintasbas says. Yet, Mr. Erdogan is running against Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, a former accountant “who is not known for his charisma,” she says, adding that pitting “a weak candidate against a strongman is difficult.” 

Mr. Erdogan controls most of Turkey’s press outlets. Many of his opponents are out of the country, in prison, or otherwise incapacitated. Yet, Ms. Aydintasbas says that the balloting system is difficult to manipulate significantly, so if Mr. Erdogan loses by a wide margin he would bow out. 

If Mr. Erdogan loses, it would largely be because the economy is in shambles. Also, the deadly twin earthquakes this winter exposed the corruption, cronyism, and incompetence of the governing class.

Mr. Erdogan announced in March that he would recruit a highly regarded Turkish economist, Mehmet Simsek, to shore up the country’s finances. Mr. Simsek politely declined the offer.

Meanwhile, Mr. Erdogan is raising the minimum wage, offering pension plans, and, mostly, printing money while keeping interest rates at the near-zero level. Such measures are bound to scare foreign investors and contribute to long-term economic woes. Yet, in the short term they keep Mr. Erdogan’s base on his side, and help some undecided voters make up their minds too. 

Regardless, Mr. Erdogan is banking on the kind of nationalist fevers he has stoked throughout his career. “When it comes to national security, the Turkish people don’t care about the economy,” a New York-based reporter for Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper, Razi Canikligil, tells the Sun.  

Many voters are angry with the European Union for long rejecting Turkey’s appeal to become a member, Mr. Canikligil says. They also resent America for President Trump’s decision to remove Turkey from the international group that developed the F-35 fighter jet — a decision made after Mr. Erdogan purchased Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft systems. 

Turks would re-elect Mr. Erdogan at their peril. At times, he uses vague religious dictates, like the  Koran’s ban on lending, as excuses for decisions like keeping interest rates low. In reality, as Mr. Ciddi notes, it is a way to keep the economy afloat until the election, even as inflationary pressures grow.

Currently, 19 Turkish liras trade for $1. If Mr. Erdogan is re-elected, it could rise to as high as 30 liras, JPMorgan economists predict. Weakened relations with America and the West could also hurt the economy.

Meanwhile, an Erdogan victory could weaken NATO’s relationship with one of its top pillars. The Turkish military is the alliance’s second largest. Positioned amid Europe, Asia, and the Mideast, the country is a geostrategic asset.

The mercurial Mr. Erdogan’s “independent” streak has increasingly led him to tighten relations with Beijing, Moscow, and extremist Islamist groups. Winning next month’s election could further convince him that he has a mandate from the people to attempt to return Turkey to its past Ottoman glory.