Using a “Wolf Pack” strategy developed by German U-boat operators in World War II, five Ukrainian sea drones encircled and sank today the Caesar Kunikov, the latest of five Russian navy Ropucha-class landing ships sunk in the Black Sea. Although helicopters flew over the site near Yalta, it is believed that the crew of 87 went down with their 369-foot-long warship.

Earlier, under a moonless night sky, the sea drone pack had traveled 200 miles south from their secret base in the Odessa region to reach the Russian ship. Previously based at Sevastopol, the ship had taken refuge in the presumed safety of waters south of Russia-annexed Crimea. With today’s sinking, Ukraine has used drones and missiles to sink or severely damage 27 Russian warships — one-third of the Black Sea fleet. President Zelensky predicted last night on national TV: “Step by step, we will clear the Black Sea of Russian terrorist objects.”

On Thursday, Ukraine’s prospects in its 2-year-old war with Russia will be closely studied at a meeting of all NATO defense ministers at Brussels.  This weekend, talks will continue at the annual Munich Security Conference. With Reuters reporting that America turned down last month President Putin’s overtures for a ceasefire, Western donor nations will review Ukraine’s performance at sea, on land, and in air.

Back at Washington, Democratic and Republican supporters of Ukraine are trying to win approval in the House of Representatives of an aid bill that would include $60 billion in largely military aid to Ukraine. Opposed to the aid, the billionaire owner of X, Elon Musk, predicted Monday: “There is no way in hell” that Mr. Putin will lose the war in Ukraine. He added: “If he were to back off, he would be assassinated.” 

Mr. Musk was joined by three Republican senators at a forum sponsored by his social media platform — Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, J.D. Vance of Ohio, and Mike Lee of Utah. However, hours later, on Tuesday morning, the Senate voted 70-29 to approve the aid bill, with the backing of 22 Republican senators. On Thursday, President Zelensky starts touring European capitals, lining up more aid.

At sea, Ukraine, a nation without a navy, has pushed the Russian navy out of the western Black Sea. This has freed up Odessa region ports, allowing grain shipments this winter to return to near pre-war levels. Due to deadly attacks by Ukrainian sea drones, Russia moved its most modern ships to Russia’s mainland port of Novorossiysk. There, barges and steel nets block the harbor mouth. Ukraine’s latest sea drones are submersible and act as remote-controlled torpedoes.

On land, Mr. Putin drives his troops forward, seeking to capture the ruins of two cities on the 600-mile front line – Kupyansk and Avdiivka. He seeks a “victory” in time for the two-year anniversary of his war, on February 24, or in time for Russia’s presidential election, the weekend of March 15-17. Any “victory” would be Pyrrhic. With Ukraine recording a daily toll of 1,000 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded, the war is in its bloodiest phase.

Late last month, the British armed forces minister, James Heappey, estimated Russian casualties at 350,000. Ukraine’s tally of Russian casualties is expected to hit 400,000 by this weekend, in time for the Munich Security Conference. In American terms, weighted for population, this would be 933,300 — near the total number of Americans killed and wounded in all of World War II. With Ukraine in a defensive crouch all along the front line, Russia’s casualties are expected to remain high.

Ukraine’s casualties are estimated at about 300,000, a bigger hit for a country with only a quarter of Russia’s population. The leaders of both countries are trying to avoid another draft call up.

On the matériel side, the land war has broken the back of Russia’s army. By Ukraine’s count, Russia has lost 6,433 battle tanks, 9,566 artillery systems, and 12,043 armored fighting vehicles.

Russia’s tank shortage is as clear as its use of T-55s — tanks that entered service in 1955. Today, Russia has an active force of 1,750 main battle tanks, ranging from T-55s to its modern T-80s and T-90s, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said Tuesday in its annual Military Balance report. Russia has 4,000 more tanks in storage, awaiting repairs and upgrades.

In the air, Belgium, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands are transferring to Ukraine this year about 100 F-16 jets. Ukrainian pilots are undergoing flight training in Arizona, Britain, and Denmark. The first Ukrainian F-16s are to go into the air this summer. These four NATO countries are buying more modern, American-made fighter jets.

Separately, Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Rosaviatsiya, is investigating the mysterious disappearance of 59 planes and helicopters from Russia in the two years since the war started, Moscow’s Izvestia newspaper reports. Several of these aircraft, Mi-8 helicopters and an Il-76 strategic airlifter, seem to have been used against Moscow’s forces in Ukraine, the newspaper reported.

In return, Russia used on February 7 for the first time its new hypersonic Zircon missile in an attack on a Kyiv apartment building. Moving nine times the speed of sound with a range of 600 miles, the missile is extremely difficult to shoot down, the director of the Kyiv Scientific-Research Institute for Forensic Examinations, Oleksandr Ruvin, said on his Telegram channel. The attack killed five civilians.

Sometimes called “the Silicon Valley of the Soviet Union,” Ukraine has set a goal of producing a million drones this year. Several thousand of these will have ranges of 600 miles. For Russia, this puts at risk an expanse of the country twice the size of California. Made of plastic and composite materials, drones fly low and are hard to detect by radar.

Over the last six weeks, Ukraine has embarked on a concerted campaign to attack Russia’s Achilles heel — its oil and gas industry. Built to Cold War standards, Russian oil refineries are designed to withstand one-ton bombs. However, Ukrainian drones with 20-pound charges have set off large oil tank fires. In addition, starting in the 1990s, most Russian refineries were upgraded with Western equipment. Drones are zeroing in on this equipment and knocking production off line for weeks at a time.

With production dropping, Russian authorities on January 31 cut gasoline exports by 37 percent and diesel exports by 23 percent. Ukraine’s strategy mirrors the World War II allies’ “Oil Campaign” of 1944-45. American and British bombers  repeatedly hit Germany’s synthetic fuel plants, depriving the Wehrmacht of essential fuel.